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Substack may not be the ideal model for music, but there is still a promising future ahead.

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MBW Views is a series of exclusive op/eds from eminent music industry people… with something to say. The following comes from Matt Jones, CEO of Medallion and former CEO of Songkick.

Jones has spent over 15 years building direct-to-fan platforms and has facilitated hundreds of millions in artist revenue through various fan engagement models.

Substack just raised $100 million by proving how well direct commerce works for its creators. A scalable direct-to-fan model could revolutionize music, but Substack’s subscription model won’t work for artists, says Jones…


Last week, Substack announced a $100 million Series C funding round, adding more fuel to a platform that’s already moving hundreds of millions of dollars directly from audiences to creators.

This funding round reinforces the fact that direct commerce in the creator economy is here to stay. It’s also a wake-up call for the music industry. Not because Substack is about to take over music (more on that below) but because Substack’s “magic dust” – the principles of its business model – so clearly resonate with musicians.

After all, Substack’s core customers (writers, journalists, podcasters, etc.) and musicians have historically faced similar challenges. They’ve struggled to monetize their work, their audiences are spread across multiple platforms, and they’ve been forced to participate in an ecosystem where intermediaries capture most of the value.

While the music industry has been debating (without end) streaming economics and artist compensation, Substack has quietly built a direct-to-fan platform that’s economically sustainable and grounded in three brilliant principles:

  • Control: Unfiltered by algorithms, Substack creators have direct access to their subscribers.
  • Monetization: Rather than relying on large platforms that aggregate demand and dictate economic terms, creators earn directly from their audiences and thus keep a higher percentage of revenues.
  • Incentives: Substack only makes money when its creators make money – it takes a 10% cut of paid subscriptions. This alignment means the platform’s success depends on creator success, not on maximizing ad impressions or keeping users scrolling.

I’ve worked with artists – from small club acts to stadium artists – for nearly 20 years, and it’s hard for me to think of one that wouldn’t be excited by those three principles at the core of Substack’s business model.

So…why aren’t all musicians flocking to Substack? 

After years of seeing artists trying to bring to life ‘paid subscriptions’, I think it’s because of Substack’s ‘1:1’ (i.e., creator-level) subscriptions.

Why Substack’s subscription model breaks down for music

After facilitating hundreds of millions of dollars in direct-to-fan commerce on behalf of artists and watching dozens of ‘paid fan club’ experiments across every artist tier, I’ve seen some patterns that reinforce why music is different from Substack’s core creator industries:

  1. While writers publish regularly on predictable schedules, musicians have natural creative cycles – periods of writing, recording, touring, and crucially, resting – that don’t align with an ‘always on’ publishing schedule.
  2. Musical artists face a dense thicket of stakeholders (and contractual arrangements) that can have tremendous influence on how the artist can ultimately monetize their IP or gate access to make a paid tier enticing for fans.
  3. Musical artists have a unique (and highly variable) monetizable IP ‘surface.’ Musicians can monetize everything from master recordings to music videos, ticket pre-sales, unreleased music and behind-the-scenes content. Accordingly, a direct commerce platform for music would need to handle a variety of different fan UXs across live, digital music and commerce. Features like ticket sales and merch product drops attract lots of fan demand, and require a completely different consumption experience than just distributing content.
  4. Individual musical taste is broad and complex. On Substack, people might pay for a handful of their favorite newsletters. But our passion for music works differently. We don’t just love a few artists. We love different artists for different emotions, different memories, different occasions. Music is biographical, and we want access to our full musical selves – preferably in a single place.
The opportunity in music: networks over silos

Our industry’s next breakthrough won’t come from incrementally improving streaming payouts or fighting over playlist placement. It will come from building systems that give artists what Substack gives writers: creative control, direct economic relationships with fans, and a platform that’s incentive-aligned with the creators it supports.

Music demands a unique platform, a unique product experience, and a unique economic model. Instead of Substack’s 1:1 creator-level subscriptions, we should explore models that create value through network effects, which is when a platform grows in utility as more people join.

Networks can create value through access and timing rather than siloed content gating. For fans, a networked experience can deliver a hub for engaging with all of the artists they love, along with other fans. For artists, a networked experience can respect creative cycles and reduce the constant pressure for content production.

This, in turn, could produce collaborative dynamics between musicians. Because of ‘network effects’, artists would become each other’s distribution channels. If we make it easy for fans to access all of their favorite artists, then overall engagement goes up and all artists benefit.

I built my career on the belief that artists deserve a much larger ‘share of wallet’ from every fan they have than what they’ve been getting. I still believe that. But after watching countless paid fan club offerings on a variety of platforms launch with excitement and quietly fizzle out, I’ve had to confront an uncomfortable truth: except for a very unique kind of artist, an artist-level paid subscription is a terminally broken monetization mechanic.

For 99.99% of musicians it doesn’t work and will never work at scale.

In my experience, artists don’t want to feel like they’re taking advantage of their fans. And they don’t want content creation to feel like subscription justification. They want authentic relationships that happen to generate revenue, not revenue streams that require manufactured authenticity.

The thing that will revolutionize music for artists and fans won’t be exactly like Substack. But the blueprint exists (and hats off to Substack for leading the charge). The technology works and fans are ready.Music Business Worldwide

White House Indicates Trump is Willing to Discuss with Putin and Zelenskyy | Latest Updates on Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Administration says Russia expressed ‘desire to meet with President Trump’ and that the US wants war in Ukraine to end.

The White House has said that United States President Donald Trump is “open” to the idea of a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

In remarks on Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that Russian officials had expressed interest in meeting with Trump. Leavitt did not say when or where such a meeting could take place, but AP quoted an anonymous White House official saying the meeting could happen within a week.

“The Russians expressed their desire to meet with President Trump, and the president is open to meeting with both President Putin and President Zelenskyy,” Leavitt told members of the press following reports in the New York Times that Trump could meet with Putin in Russia as soon as next week.

The US president has said that he is committed to helping bring the war in Ukraine to an end. He initially promised to stop the conflict on “day one” of his presidency, but has struggled to make progress. The statement comes after US envoy Steve Witkoff visited Moscow to speak with Russian officials earlier today.

In a social media post, Trump said Witkoff held a “highly productive” meeting with Putin and that “great progress was made!”

“Afterwards, I updated some of our European Allies. Everyone agrees this War must come to a close, and we will work towards that in the days and weeks to come,” he added.

The New York Times reported that Trump intends to meet first with Putin before later setting up a meeting that would also include Zelenskyy.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a TV interview that the US now has a better understanding of what conditions would be required for Russia to end the war.

“For the first time perhaps since this administration began, we have some concrete examples of the kinds of things that Russia would ask for in order to end the war,” Rubio said in an interview with Fox Business Network’s “Kudlow,” adding that questions of territory would be a key part of any deal.

The news agency AFP reported that Trump also discussed the possibility of such a meeting during a phone call with Zelenskyy, citing an anonymous Ukrainian source. That call is also said to have included NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and the leaders of Britain, Germany and Finland.

Trump has recently mulled steps to further increase pressure on Russia, which he has accused of not being sincerely interested in ending the war. Such steps could include heightened US sanctions.

 

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Trump warns of imposing 50% tariffs on India over purchase of Russian oil

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US President Donald Trump has issued an executive order hitting India with an additional 25% tariff over its purchases of Russian oil.

That will raise the total tariff on Indian imports to the United States to 50% – among the highest rates imposed by the US.

The new rate will come into effect in 21 days, so on 27 August, according to the executive order.

A response from India’s foreign ministry on Wednesday said Delhi had already made clear its stance on imports from Russia, and reiterated that the tariff is “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable”.

“It is therefore extremely unfortunate that the US should choose to impose additional tariffs on India for actions that several other countries are also taking in their own national interest,” the brief statement read.

“India will take all actions necessary to protect its national interests,” it added.

The US president had earlier warned he would raise levies, saying India doesn’t “care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine”.

On Wednesday, the White House said in a statement that the “Russian Federation’s actions in Ukraine pose an ongoing threat to US national security and foreign policy, necessitating stronger measures to address the national emergency”.

It said India’s imports of Russian oil undermine US efforts to counter Russia’s activities in Ukraine.

It added that the US will determine which other countries import oil from Russia, and will “recommend further actions to the President as needed”.

Oil and gas are Russia’s biggest exports, and Moscow’s biggest customers include China, India and Turkey.

The threatened tariff hike follows meetings on Wednesday by Trump’s top envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow, aimed at securing peace between Russia and Ukraine.

The additional tariff would mean a steep 50% duty on key Indian exports like textiles, gems and jewellery, auto parts, and seafood, hitting major job-creating sectors.

Electronics, including iPhones, and pharma remain exempt for now.

Delhi has previously called Trump’s threat to raise tariffs over its purchase of oil from Russia “unjustified and unreasonable”.

In an earlier statement, a spokesperson for India’s foreign ministry said the US had encouraged India to import Russian gas at the start of the conflict, “for strengthening global energy markets stability”.

He said India “began importing from Russia because traditional supplies were diverted to Europe after the outbreak of the conflict”.

The latest threatened tariff demonstrates Trump’s willingness to impose sanctions related to the war in Ukraine even against nations that the US considers to be important allies or trading partners.

This could be a warning that other countries could feel a real bite if Trump ramps up those kind of sanctions once Friday’s deadline passes, when the US president has threatened new sanctions on Russia and to place 100% tariffs on countries that purchase its oil.

This would not be the first time the Trump administration has imposed secondary tariffs, which are also in place to punish buyers of Venezuelan oil.

India has previously criticised the US – its largest trading partner – for introducing the levies, when the US itself is still doing trade with Russia.

Last year, the US traded goods worth an estimated $3.5bn (£2.6bn) with Russia, despite tough sanctions and tariffs.

Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have in the past referred to each other as friends and, during Trump’s first term, attended political rallies in each others’ countries.

But that has not stopped Trump from hitting India with the levies, suggesting diverging interests between New Delhi and Washington.

The Federation of India Exports Organisations has called the decision to impose additional tariffs “extremely shocking”, adding that it will hit 55% of India’s exports to America.

The tariffs are expected to make Indian goods far costlier in the US, and could cut US-bound exports by 40–50%, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a Delhi-based think tank.

“India should remain calm, avoid retaliation for at least six months, and recognise that meaningful trade negotiations with the US cannot proceed under threats or mistrust,” former Indian trade official and head of GTRI, Ajay Srivastava, said.

With additional analysis from BBC North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher.

Douglas Emmett Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Exceeds Estimates

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Earnings call transcript: Douglas Emmett Q2 2025 earnings beat estimates

Japan Spends Big on Defense 80 Years After Hiroshima

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new video loaded: 80 Years After Hiroshima, Japan Is a Big Defense Spender

Recent episodes in Latest Video

Whether it’s reporting on conflicts abroad and political divisions at home, or covering the latest style trends and scientific developments, Times Video journalists provide a revealing and unforgettable view of the world.

Whether it’s reporting on conflicts abroad and political divisions at home, or covering the latest style trends and scientific developments, Times Video journalists provide a revealing and unforgettable view of the world.

The latest streaming moves: ESPN absorbs NFL RedZone, Hulu integration, and Disney’s Wrestlemania takeover – here’s what you need to know

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The streaming wars entered yet another new iteration on Wednesday as Disney announced a major change to the division that it calls direct-to-consumer: Disney+ will integrate Hulu’s operations, transforming into something that looks a lot like the old linear TV bundle. As CEO Bob Iger told investors on the company’s third-quarter earnings call, “combining Hulu into Disney plus [will] create a unified app experience featuring branded and general entertainment, news, and sports resulting in a one of a kind entertainment destination for subscribers.”

The night before Disney released its third-quarter earnings, the company confirmed it had struck a deal with its long-time partner in sports, the National Football League, an asset and equity swap that sees the NFL getting a 10% stake in Disney’s ESPN division and ESPN/Disney acquiring several streaming assets from the NFL. The NFL’s 10% stake in ESPN is valued between $2 billion and $3 billion, per estimates from Octagon.

ESPN will gain the rights to three additional NFL games per season, previously broadcast by the NFL’s own networks, meaning more of America’s highest-rated TV show, live football, will be Disney’s as the company fortifies its streaming war chest. Disney has been reconstructing ESPN to survive the decline of linear TV with the launch of a standalone streaming service, and it will now plug in content beloved by football fanatics: the NFL Network, NFL RedZone distribution rights, and NFL Fantasy Football. In streaming, Netflix and Amazon have each acquired more NFL rights over recent years, so Disney’s move shows its playing defense and some offense, too, on this front.

Disney also announced an expanded agreement with the WWE, another recent Netflix partner, which subsequently emerged as a $1.6 billion deal that will make Disney the home of the marquee event, Wrestlemania. Iger said on the earnings call that ESPN “will be the exclusive home for WWE Premium Live Events, further expanding ESPN’s rights portfolio.” On Disney’s plans in this area, Iger added Disney is “building ESPN into the preeminent digital sports platform with our highly anticipated direct to consumer sports offering.”

Disney revealed in its earnings that the sports division, anchored by ESPN, saw revenue fall 5% to $4.3 billion, mainly because of higher NBA and college-sports rights fees. Segment profit, however, soared 29% to $1 billion as a merger in its Indian unit took some losses off its balance sheet.

Streaming profitable amid linear TV, movie studio decline

Overall, third-quarter earnings showed resilience in key business segments for Disney such as streaming and theme parks, even as its traditional TV and film studio divisions showed fatigue. Total revenue for the quarter ending June 28 rose 2% year-over-year to $23.7 billion, just under Wall Street forecasts, while adjusted earnings per share climbed 16% to $1.61, surpassing analyst expectations of $1.47. Net income before taxes rose 4% to $3.2 billion.

A headline achievement for Disney was the solid performance of its streaming business, which posted a 6% revenue increase to $6.2 billion and achieved operating profit of $346 million—a substantial turnaround from a $19 million loss reported in the same quarter last year.

Subscriber metrics reflected steady gains, with Disney+ ticking up 1% quarter-over-quarter for a total of 128 million and Hulu by the same margin to 55.5 million subscribers. The combined Disney+ and Hulu subscriber base climbed to 183 million, up 2.6 million versus the previous quarter. Disney also finalized its acquisition of the remaining stake in Hulu from Comcast/NBCUniversal in June, setting the stage for a tighter integration of its streaming brands later this year.

Meanwhile, Disney’s studio entertainment segment saw a more modest 1% revenue growth to $10.7 billion, weighed down by a 15% drop in operating income to $1 billion. Theatrical releases, including original animated and live-action remakes, underperformed compared to last year’s strong box-office showing with “Inside Out 2.” Additionally, Disney’s linear TV networks, including ABC and Disney Channel, recorded a 15% year-over-year decline in revenue to $2.3 billion, underscoring ongoing challenges from cord-cutting and lower international results following the Star India deal.

Looking ahead, Disney expects total subscriptions for Disney+ and Hulu to rise by over 10 million in the next quarter, driven in part by an expanded agreement with Charter Communications.

Theme parks and experiences shine

Disney’s “Experiences” segment—which covers theme parks, cruise lines, and consumer products—delivered robust numbers, outstripping earlier forecasts. Q3 revenue increased 8% year-over-year to $9.1 billion, fueled by a 22% surge in operating income at domestic parks and experiences to $1.7 billion. Disney pointed to strong guest spending and higher occupancy rates in its parks and cruise lines, especially at Walt Disney World, despite the highly anticipated opening of competitor Universal’s Epic Universe in Orlando. Executives emphasized the “continued resilience” of Disney’s park business in the face of new competition.

Guidance raised, optimism for 2025

Notably, Disney raised its guidance for fiscal 2025, projecting adjusted earnings of $5.85 per share—an 18% increase over the prior year. The company also anticipates double-digit segment operating income growth in entertainment and sports, with an 8% gain in experiences for the full year. CEO Bob Iger affirmed Disney’s commitment to global expansion, noting more active park expansions than at any time in Disney’s history and highlighting ongoing strategic investments in streaming, theme parks, and sports as drivers for future growth.

“Disney is not done building, and we are excited for the future,” Iger said following the earnings release.

For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 

Federal Way to Host 2025 U.S. Masters Summer National Championships

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By Terin Frodyma on SwimSwam

2025 U.S. Masters Summer National Championships

Competitors of all ages will come together at the Weyerhaeuser King County Aquatic Center in Federal Way, Washington, for the 2025 U.S. Masters Swimming Summer National Championship from Wednesday through Sunday. With five full days of racing on the schedule, this year’s event will bring together over 1,100 athletes, representing 216 clubs, across five countries.

The 2025 Summer Nationals is the fifth time Federal Way has played host to a USMS National Championship and the first time since the 2007 Summer Nationals.

As has been the case in past years, this year’s Masters Nationals will feature athletes competing at the highest level while participating in a wide range of age groups. The oldest competitor on the entry list is 95-year-old Frank Manheim, who is entered in the 50 and 100 freestyle and 50 and 100 backstrokes. He’s joined by four other swimmers over the age of 90, as well as nearly 30 others in their 80s (104 athletes are age 75 or older).

Competitors from the 18–24 age group up to age 95-99 are entered to compete in a full schedule of long-course events from 50-meter sprints to the 1500 freestyle, all racing in their respective five-year age groups.

Four Olympic veterans will also be on hand this week as they showcase their skills alongside fellow Masters swimmers:

Puget Sound Masters will be represented by Rick Colella, who represented the USA and won a bronze medal in the 200-meter butterfly at the 1976 Montreal Olympics.

Kurt Grote won a gold medal in the 4×100 medley relay for the U.S. at the 1996 Atlanta Olympics and is racing this week as well.

Two-time Olympian Dan Jorgensen (1988 Seoul and 1992 Barcelona) represented the United States and won both gold and bronze medals during his swimming career.

Puerto Rican Olympian Francisco Canales swam in three events at the 1976 Montreal Games and will also be competing in the 2025 Summer Nationals.

Swimming for the 2025 Summer Nationals begins Wednesday morning with the 1500-meter freestyle and continues through Sunday with several events on each day of the championship. The complete program includes all standard long-course events, along with relays.

Read the full story on SwimSwam: 2025 U.S. Masters Summer National Championships Set To Kick Off In Federal Way

Long-term mental health is impacted by verbal abuse in childhood

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A major new study has found that verbal abuse in childhood may be just as damaging to long-term mental well-being as physical abuse, if not more so. This groundbreaking research highlights the need to treat verbal abuse as a serious public health issue that comes with enduring psychological consequences.

Research led by Liverpool John Moores University (LJMU) has drawn on the data of 20,687 adults from England and Wales, collected between 2012 and 2024.

In the self-reported survey, participants were asked about their exposure to physical and/or verbal abuse before the age of 18 using clinically validated questions. Then current mental health markers were assessed using the Short Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale (SWEMWBS), which factors in optimism, relaxation, social connection and coping skills.

The survey asked participants how often they felt optimistic about the future, useful, relaxed, had dealt with problems well, had thought clearly, felt close to others and were able to make up their own minds when required.

What the researchers found was that those who experienced verbal abuse as children were 1.64 times more likely to report poor mental well-being as adults. Meanwhile, individuals exposed to physical abuse were 1.52 times more likely to have compromised mental health later in life, and those who experienced both verbal and physical maltreatment were 2.15 times more likely to have negative mental health outcomes.

There’s a growing body of evidence that demonstrates how verbal and emotional abuse in childhood has long-term impacts, even changing the brain as it’s developing. Nonetheless, it’s often viewed as less harmful than other forms of maltreatment. In this study, the researchers found that while physical abuse had decreased – from around 20.2% of children born in the 1970s to 10% of those born in 2000 or later – verbal abuse has steadily increased.

While self-reported, this study found that those who experienced this in their youth had nearly double the likelihood of social isolation (13.6%) compared to those who were exposed to no verbal abuse (7.7%).

Abuse can lead to lifelong effects on mental and physical health, such as elevated anxiety and depression, alcohol and drug use, risky behaviors and violence towards others.

“The immediate consequences of physical abuse of children are often shocking with immediate and life course impacts on the victims’ health,” the researchers noted. “There remains an urgent need for greater measures to prevent physical abuse and support those who have been affected by it. Verbal abuse may not immediately manifest in ways that catch the attention of bystanders, clinicians, or others in supporting services with a responsibility for safeguarding children. However, as suggested here, some impacts may be no less harmful or protracted.”

The researchers emphasize that this study doesn’t diminish the long-term harm of physical abuse, but it highlights the need to better consider emotional and verbal maltreatment when it comes to both child protection policies and mental health treatment in adults who have experienced this trauma.

“As a society, and indeed in many countries, legislation now prevents the physical abuse of children, which is a positive but it also leaves a potential void which should be filled with instructional advice and support on appropriate parenting,” said Mark Bellis, Professor of Public Health and Behavioral Sciences at LJMU.

“Without such support and in an absence of public knowledge of the damages caused by child verbal abuse, measures to reduce the physical punishment of children risk simply swapping one type of harmful abuse for another with equally long-term consequences,” the researchers concluded.

The study was published in the journal BMJ Open.

Source: Liverpool John Moores University

Southern Europe gripped by wildfires and heatwaves, forcing evacuations amid Climate Crisis News

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Southern Europe is battling deadly wildfires and extreme heat this week, with record temperatures and dry conditions forcing evacuations across France, Spain and Portugal.

An enormous wildfire in southern France’s Aude region has killed one person, injured nine others, marking the country’s largest wildfire this season.

The blaze, which erupted on Tuesday, has already scorched at least 15,000 hectares (37,000 acres) – an area larger than the city of Paris – in less than 24 hours. Fires have consumed forests, ravaged villages and damaged or destroyed at least 25 homes, with emergency officials warning that the blaze remains out of control.

“All of the nation’s resources are mobilised,” President Emmanuel Macron said in a post on X, urging people to act with “the utmost caution”.

More than 1,800 firefighters have been sent to battle the flames, backed by 600 vehicles and water-dropping aircraft.

“We have at our disposal in the Aude department the maximum number of personnel and resources that we can have in the south of France in its entirety,” said Remi Recio, deputy prefect of Narbonne.

An elderly woman who refused to evacuate was killed, while another person is missing. Two civilians were injured, including one in critical condition with burns, and seven firefighters suffered smoke inhalation.

Camping grounds and at least one village were partially evacuated, and roads were closed. “I left everything behind me,” said David Cerdan, 51, who fled the village of Saint-Laurent-de-la-Cabrerisse. “I’m putting it into perspective. I only have material damage.”

Officials say the fire has already consumed as much land as all French wildfires in 2024 combined – more than double that of 2023. “The fire is advancing in an area where all the conditions are ripe for it to progress,” said fire official Roesch. “This fire will keep us busy for several days. It’s a long-term operation.”

An investigation into the cause is under way. France’s environment ministry said drought conditions and dry vegetation contributed to the spread, with water restrictions already in place in the Aude region.

“The risk of fire is greatest in the Mediterranean,” said climate and agriculture analyst Serge Zaka. “In France, it is the hottest and driest area. But with climate change, these fire risks are expected to become more significant during the summer.”

Last month, a blaze near Marseille injured about 300 people. Scientists warn that climate change is driving more intense heat and dryness across Europe, the world’s fastest-warming continent.

Spain and Portugal face heat-driven blazes

In Spain, a prolonged heatwave since Sunday – with temperatures reaching 43C (109F) – has helped fan multiple wildfires across the country.

The resort town of Tarifa in Andalusia saw more than 1,500 people and 5,000 vehicles evacuated after a fire broke out near La Pena, a wooded area close to the beach. The fire, believed to have started in a camper van, was rapidly spread by strong winds.

“What concerns us most right now is the wind, whether it shifts between the west and east,” said Antonio Sanz, Andalusia’s interior minister.

Fire crews worked through the night to keep flames away from hotels and tourist accommodation, but the blaze remains active, and residents have not been allowed to return.

Elsewhere, a fire near Ponteceso in the Galicia region forced the evacuation of Corme Aldea village. In Cadiz, a blaze that erupted Tuesday led to mass evacuations, according to state broadcaster RTVE.

The Spanish meteorological agency AEMET has issued orange alerts across several regions through Friday. Civil protection authorities warn of “high” or “extreme” fire risk in much of the country.

Spain’s Ministry of Health reported 1,060 excess deaths linked to extreme heat in July, a 57 percent increase over the same month last year, based on data from the national mortality monitoring system. While the data does not confirm direct causation, it is widely used to estimate heat-related deaths.

In neighbouring Portugal, wildfires have already burned more than 42,000 hectares (104,000 acres) in 2025 – the largest area since 2022 and eight times more than this time last year. More than half of that land was scorched in just the past two weeks.

Firefighters managed to bring a large blaze under control near Vila Real in the north on Wednesday, but others remain active. A fire in the city of Amarante continued to burn, while another in A Coruna reached emergency level 2 due to its proximity to populated areas.

Lisbon declared a state of alert until August 7, with more than 100 municipalities on maximum fire risk amid soaring temperatures.

Scientists say Southern Europe is on the front line of climate breakdown. Rising global temperatures are creating the conditions for longer and more destructive fire seasons.