After months of political turmoil in South Korea, Lee Jae-myung has won the presidential election by a wide margin. Mr. Lee’s campaign has ridden a wave of anger against former President Yoon Suk Yeol after he tried to impose martial law in December.
MBW Explains is a series of analytical features in which we explore the context behind major music industry talking points – and suggest what might happen next. Only MBW+ subscribers have unlimited access to these articles.
Goldman Sachs has published the latest edition of its influential Music in the Air report.
The 91-page research paper, released today (June 3), provides insights into streaming growth, price strategies, emerging markets, and the impact of artificial intelligence on the music business.
Despite revising some forecasts downward following a slower-than-expected 2024, Goldman Sachs maintains a positive long-term outlook for the music industry.
The bank expects the global music market (across recorded music, publishing, and live) to nearly double from USD $104.9 billion in 2024 to $196.8 billion by 2035.
According to the report, authored by a team of Goldman Sachs analysts led byLisa Yang, alongside Eric Sheridan and Stephen Laszczyk, among others, the industry will benefit from several key growth drivers, including emerging market expansion, subscription pricing improvements, and new revenue streams from superfan monetization.
The report identifies significant opportunities ahead, noting that “the music market should remain resilient in an uncertain macro backdrop”.
Here are seven key takeaways from Goldman Sachs’ analysis…
Yalcin Sonat / Shutterstock
1. GLOBAL STREAMING SUBSCRIBERS EXPECTED TO REACH 827 MILLION IN 2025
Goldman Sachs forecasts that global paid music streaming subscribers will grow to 827 million in 2025, representing 10% YoY growth from 752 million in 2024.
This would represent an addition of approximately 75 million net new subscribers in 2025, though the growth rate of 10% represents a slight deceleration from 2024’s 10.6% growth, and remains well below the 12.8% growth seen in 2023.
“There were 72 million new subscribers in 2024, compared with 77 million/94 million in 2023/22, representing the slowest pace of net additions since 2017,” the report states.
Emerging markets will continue to drive the majority of this growth, where “penetration remains at only 8% of the internet population” compared to 38% in developed markets.
Photo Credit: ElenaR/Shutterstock
2. RECORDED MUSIC GROWTH SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERPERFORMED IN 2024, FORECASTS REVISED DOWNWARD. Global revenues tipped to hit $31.4bn in 2025.
Recorded music growth severely missed expectations in 2024, growing only 4.8% YoY (as reported by IFPI) compared to Goldman Sachs’ forecast of 8.9% – a shortfall of over 4 percentage points.
“2024 global recorded music growth came 4ppt below our expectations,” the report states, marking the first year since Goldman Sachs began forecasting music industry trends where recorded music fell well short of projections.
“Goldman now expects 5.8% growth in 2025 (down from 8.8% previously) and 6.6% in 2026 (down from 8.4%).”
Goldman Sachs has consequently lowered its recorded music growth forecasts, now expecting 5.8% growth in 2025 (down from 8.8% previously) and 6.6% in 2026 (down from 8.4%).
Goldman projects the recorded music market to grow from $29.6 billion in 2024 to $31.4 billion in 2025, $33.6 billion in 2026, $43.4 billion in 2030, and $55.0 billion in 2035 (see below).
Photo credit: Piotr Swat / Shutterstock.com
3. SUPERFAN MONETIZATION COULD GENERATE $4.3 BILLION IN ADDITIONAL REVENUE
Goldman Sachs identifies superfan monetization as a significant opportunity for the music industry, estimating a potential annual revenue uplift of $4.3 billion based on 2026 projections.
The analysis assumes that 20% of paid streaming subscribers can be defined as superfans and that these users would spend twice as much as average subscribers, based on Luminate‘s finding that 20% of US music listeners are considered superfans.
“Goldman estimates a potential annual revenue uplift of $4.3 billion based on 2026 projections.”
“According to Luminate, super fans in the US spend 66% more on live music than the average music listener, and 2x as much on physical purchases,” the report notes.
Goldman points to Tencent Music’s Super VIP tier as an example of a successful superfan tier, which “costs c.2.5x as much as the premium subscription” and has seen strong adoption, with penetration reaching 12% of TME’s subscriber base in Q1 2025.
Credit: SOPA/Alamy
4. MUSIC STREAMING PRICES WILL CONTINUE RISING WITH REGULAR INCREASES EXPECTED
Goldman Sachs expects music streaming services to implement regular pricing increases, with second rounds of price hikes typically occurring 12-18 months after initial increases.
“Through 2023, all major streaming platforms have implemented their first-ever comprehensive price increases across standard and family plans. These appeared to have had little or no impact on subscriber growth and churn rates,” the report states.
The investment bank believes music streaming remains attractively priced compared to other entertainment services, noting that “Spotify‘s and Apple Music‘s standard subscriptions are still 39% cheaper than Netflix in the US” and “in the US, the average spend per paid music streaming account is around $14 per month.
This compares to an average spend per month of $69 for SVOD users, with the average consumer having 4 SVOD services.”
Credit: NicoElNino/Shutterstock
5. EMERGING MARKETS WILL DRIVE 75% OF SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY 2035
Goldman forecasts that emerging markets will become the dominant driver of music streaming growth, accounting for 75% of net subscriber additions by 2035, up from 57% in 2024.
“Emerging markets have become the major driver of subscription growth, accounting for over half of new subscribers since 2021 (on our estimates), including nearly 60% in 2024, although penetration remains at only 8% of the internet population,” the report states.
However, emerging markets will continue to contribute a smaller share of streaming revenue due to lower average revenue per user (ARPU) each year.
Goldman calculates – based on IFPI figures – that annual ’emerging market’ ARPU sat at around USD$8 in 2024, compared to USD$31 in ‘developed’ markets.
(These numbers will be impacted by telco deals, multi-user subscription bundles etc.)
The analysis highlights China as a key market, where “Tencent Music’s paying ratio has increased significantly since 2018” from 4.2% to 21.5% in 2024, and India with an estimated “20 million paid users across all streaming services out of a total MAU of [circa] 200 million users in 2023.”
Photo credit: Phonlamai Photo/ Shutterstock
6. AI’s IMPACT ON MUSIC UPLOADS and the industry’s revenue pool APPEARS LIMITED SO FAR
Despite concerns about artificial intelligence flooding streaming platforms with generated content, Goldman Sachs’ report notes that “the total number of tracks uploaded daily decreased YoY for the first time in 2024 (citing Luminate data) in spite of the rising availability of AI-powered music apps to generate songs.”
The bank’s analysis suggests AI’s impact on the music industry revenue pool remains minimal, with industry checks suggesting “AI music accounts for 0.1% of the royalty pool.”
“Ongoing concerted efforts among the large music players are necessary to further evolve royalty payment structures and protect music copyrights.”
Some platforms are seeing significant AI content, however. “Deezer disclosed in April 2025 that [over] 20,000 AI-generated tracks were uploaded to its platform daily (representing 18% of all tracks), double the 10k disclosed in January 2025,” while “Sony Music disclosed that it has taken down [over] 75,000 AI deepfakes based on its artists, heavily skewed towards its most popular artists.”
Goldman emphasizes that “ongoing concerted efforts among the large music players are necessary to further evolve royalty payment structures and protect music copyrights.”
7.Goldman Sachs expects the global value of Live music to accelerate
Goldman Sachs expects live music to be a key growth driver, forecasting 10.0% growth in 2025 following 4.4% growth in 2024.
The bank has raised its long-term outlook for the sector, now expecting a 7.2% compound annual growth rate between 2024-2030, up from 6.7% previously.
Live music revenues are projected to grow from $34.6 billion in 2024 to $38.2 billion in 2025, $52.6 billion in 2030, and $67.1 billion in 2035.
“We see a robust demand and supply outlook for the live music industry, with upside from increased integration of live music ticketing with streaming services”.
“The Live Music industry should benefit from an increasing supply of diverse & popular artists touring over the next decade” driven by “stronger financial incentives to tour as tours make up a higher percentage of artist income,” the report states.
Goldman Sachs highlights demographic trends as particularly supportive, noting that “the rise of Millennials & Gen Z fans” who “place the highest relative importance on live experiences vs prior generations” will drive growth as these cohorts see their “income, wealth and spending power as a group grow rapidly over the next several years.”
The bank also notes strong pricing power, with “average ticket prices” rising 40% for stadiums and 37% for clubs between 2019-2024, while emphasizing that live music has “proven to be more recession resilient than other forms of entertainment.”
Goldman Sachs’ analysts said that they “see a robust demand and supply outlook for the live music industry, with upside from increased integration of live music ticketing with streaming services”.
Reservoir (Nasdaq: RSVR) is a publicly traded, global independent music company with operations across music publishing, recorded music, and artist management.
It was early morning in Kabul, Afghanistan, when Fatima Amiri first heard the gunshots from inside her classroom. She and hundreds of other students had been preparing for college entrance exams at the time, but then the girls began screaming in panic. Amiri swiftly stood up to calm the class down, but when she turned around, she saw a man with a gun deliberately firing at students.
“I was afraid; I tried to take shelter under the desks when an explosion happened,” the 17-year-old said.
Amiri lost an eye and an eardrum as a result of the explosion. Her jaw was also badly damaged. In all, 54 other students, mostly girls, were killed.
As a minority, Shiites in Afghanistan have been targeted and persecuted for a long time.
Amiri lives in the Dasht-e-Barchi vicinity, a predominantly Shiite neighborhood in western Kabul city. Terrorists have been targeting Shiite mosques, schools, athletic clubs, and cultural centers. A horrific assault on a maternity ward in 2020 killed 20 civilians, including women and their newborn babies.
Amiri knew attending school from a security perspective was risky. However, she never thought that one day a terrorist would be trying to kill her inside a classroom.
Undeterred, two weeks after the attack, Amiri showed up for a university entrance exam and was declared one of the top scorers.
“I want to tell the terrorists that no matter how much oppression you would impose on us, you can’t defeat us!” Amiri said. “Your attacks inspire us to rise again and again.”
The UN Security Council and other world leaders condemned the attack on the Kaaj education center in Kabul, where Amiri went for two years to prepare for the university entrance exam, but no robust security measures had been taken by the political regimes in Afghanistan to ensure the safety of the Shiites who now feel more marginalized under the Taliban.
In recognition of her courage and resilience, the BBC placed Amiri on a list of 100 inspiring and influential women from around the world for 2022.
The attack came in the wake of a ban by the Taliban on girls schools beyond the sixth grade in Afghanistan after the group swept into power in the summer of 2021. But young Afghans like Amiri are still hopeful that the international community will put pressure on Taliban leaders to respect the right of girls to education and the right of women to work.
“I appeal to the international community to do something for Afghan women and girls,” she said. “Hear their voice and take action. It’s almost two years now that schools are closed for girls. There is the possibility that the university will be closed too. Currently, the situation is hard. Afghan women and girls can’t work.”
Amiri’s prediction of a restriction on higher education for girls was proved right after the Taliban imposed a complete ban on women’s access to university on Dec. 20. Five days later, the regime also ordered nongovernmental organizations to stop women from coming to work. Although the ban on women’s access to education and work sparked strong condemnation from the international community, Taliban leaders have said that they will not compromise.
Your guide to what Trump’s second term means for Washington, business and the world
Donald Trump has described Xi Jinping as “extremely hard to make a deal with” as the two countries face off over claims from the US that China is reneging on a trade truce signed in Geneva last month.
“I like President Xi of China, always have, and always will, but he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!” the US president said on his Truth Social platform.
It was not immediately clear if Trump’s comments were in response to recent direct contact with Xi.
The comments follow accusations from Washington last week that China is failing to live up to a promise to approve licences for exports of rare earths, leading to shortages that are threatening to shut down parts of US industry.
China in turn accused the US this week of “seriously violating” the trade truce that the two economic powers agreed in Switzerland.
US federal prosecutors have charged two Chinese nationals with smuggling a toxic fungus into the United States, which authorities claim could be turned into a “potential agroterrorism weapon”.
The charges against Jian Yunqing, 33, and Liu Zunyong, 34, two researchers from China, were unsealed by the US Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Michigan on Tuesday. The pair face additional charges of conspiracy, visa fraud and providing false statements to investigators.
Prosecutors allege that Liu smuggled the fungus, called Fusarium graminearum, into the US so he could carry out research at a University of Michigan laboratory where his girlfriend, Jian, worked.
Fusarium graminearum causes “head blight”, a disease in crops like wheat, barley, maize and rice, and is “responsible for billions of dollars in economic losses worldwide each year”, according to the charges.
The pathogen also poses a danger to humans and livestock, and can cause “vomiting, liver damage, and reproductive defects”.
Allegedly toxic plant pathogens that a Chinese scientist entered the US with last year, federal authorities said on Tuesday [US District Court For The Eastern District Of Michigan via AP]
The investigation was carried out by US Customs and Border Protection and the FBI, whose mandate includes investigating foreign and economic espionage as well as counterterrorism.
Jian was earlier arrested by the FBI and is due to appear in federal court this week, where her ties to the Chinese government are also under scrutiny at a time of increased paranoia within the US government about possible Chinese infiltration.
Jian allegedly received funding from the Chinese government to carry out research on the same toxic fungus in China, according to the charges.
The Associated Press news agency, citing the FBI, said that Liu was sent back to China from Detroit in July 2024 after airport customs authorities found the fungus in his backpack. He later admitted to bringing the material into the US to carry out research at the University of Michigan, where he had previously worked alongside his girlfriend, the AP said.
During their investigation, the FBI found an article on Liu’s phone titled “Plant-Pathogen Warfare under Changing Climate Conditions”. Messages on the couple’s phones also indicated that Jian was aware of the smuggling scheme, and later lied to investigators about her knowledge.
It is unlikely that Liu will face extradition as the US does not have an extradition treaty with China.
FBI director Kash Patel claimed on X that China was “working around the clock to deploy operatives and researchers to infiltrate American institutions and target our food supply, which would have grave consequences”.
New… I can confirm that the FBI arrested a Chinese national within the United States who allegedly smuggled a dangerous biological pathogen into the country.
The individual, Yunqing Jian, is alleged to have smuggled a dangerous fungus called “Fusarium graminearum,” which is an…
— FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) June 3, 2025
The Chinese Embassy in Washington, DC did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The University of Michigan on Tuesday issued a brief statement condemning “any actions that seek to cause harm, threaten national security, or undermine the university’s critical public mission”.
The case comes just a week after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio pledged to start “aggressively” revoking the visas of Chinese students in the US on national security grounds.
Targeted students include Chinese nationals with ties to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), an institution that counts about 100 million members. While some Chinese may join for ideological reasons, membership in the CCP comes with perks like access to better jobs and educational opportunities.
It is not uncommon for students from elite backgrounds, like those studying in the US, to also be members of the CCP.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has previously pledged to “firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests” of its students studying overseas following news of the visa crackdown.
On Sunday, a group gathered in Boulder, Colorado, to raise awareness for hostages held in Gaza was attacked, leaving 12 people injured.
The suspect, Mohammed Sabry Soliman, accused of throwing incendiary devices at them, allegedly planned the attack for a year, and told police he wanted to “kill all Zionist people,” according to court documents.
It was the latest in a string of attacks against Jewish people and institutions, ratcheting up anxiety among those in North America’s Jewish community who see these incidents as signs of growing antisemitism in the US.
“Jews are feeling the impact and are more afraid than they were two weeks ago, or that fears that existed in some communities a few weeks ago are more heightened,” said Adina Vogel Ayalon of J Street, a pro-Israel advocacy group that’s critical of the war and has called for a ceasefire in Gaza.
“These types of hate crimes are not distinguishing between where you fall on the political spectrum about the war” between Israel and Hamas, Ms Ayalon said. “And that is something very unsettling.”
Israel has faced sustained international criticism over its military actions in Gaza, which it undertook after Hamas attacked the country on 7 October 2023, killing about 1,200 people – mostly civilians – and taking 251 hostages.
Over 50,000 people have been killed in Gaza since the start of the war, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry. The statistics do not distinguish between civilians and Hamas fighters, and the BBC and other international media organisations are blocked by Israel from entering Gaza to verify.
But a United Nations report that assessed Gazan deaths during a six-month period found nearly 70% of verified victims were women and children. Throughout the conflict, human rights experts have raised the alarm of widespread hunger, disease, and displacement within Gaza.
The war also has become a divisive political issue in the US. Pro-Palestinian protests across university campuses and in major cities have ignited greater debates over education and free speech. There are religious, generational, and partisan divides within the American Jewish community about support for Israel and the question of Palestinian statehood.
But the attacks in Boulder and Washington DC, struck a broader nerve because they crossed a “clear red line between legitimate free speech and political violence,” Ms Ayalon said.
Boulder’s attack has drawn condemnation outside the Jewish community.
“Acts of antisemitism have no place in our society,” the Muslim Public Affairs Council condemned the Boulder attack in a statement. “This violent assault is not only an attack on a specific community but a direct threat to the values of pluralism, dignity, and safety for all people of faith. As Muslims, our faith calls us to speak out against injustice and to uphold the sanctity of every human life.”
The group targeted in Boulder, Run For Their Lives, holds weekly meetings and marches across the country to call for the release of the remaining hostages taken to Gaza.
“The premise of the group is to peacefully raise awareness of the hostages. We’re apolitical, we’re not protesting anything,” said global coordinator Shira Weiss.
Many of the group’s members are Jewish and support Israel, but those are not requirements for participation.
“We get people from all walks of life – who vote Republican, Independent, Democrat, who support the Israeli government, or don’t support the Israeli government,” Ms Weiss said.
Safety has always been a top priority for group chapters, she said, but they “never thought such a violent attack would happen.”
Those conversations are again happening in the wake of the Boulder incident.
“The attacks, especially given the succession of attacks in a short period of time have made every Jewish American question their security, whether it’s their personal security or the security of Jewish institutions that they visit,” said Haliey Soifer, CEO of the Jewish Democratic Council of America.
“There’s a sense that what has occurred in DC and Boulder could have happened anywhere, could have happened to anyone.”
The Jewish Colorado organisation announced a fundraiser to support increased security for Boulder’s Jewish community, as well as financial and trauma support for victims of the attack. Its goal is $160,000.
Rabbi Dan Moskovitz of Temple Sholom in Vancouver, Canada frequently joins Run For Their Lives events and plans to continue advocating for the hostages in Gaza.
But he worries the Boulder attack would not be an isolated incident.
“It’s only going to inflame more radicalisation,” he said. “It’s only going to inspire more people to do those things.”
Underground heat increases as we go deeper into the Earth, offering an almost limitless energy source alongside other renewable alternatives. In some areas of the Earth’s crust, such as Iceland—where geothermal wells are a common energy source—high temperatures are reached at depths of less than one kilometre. This heat generates steam, which can be used for heating systems or to drive turbines.
However, extreme temperatures are not necessary for a domestic geothermal system designed to maintain a comfortable indoor temperature year-round. One company is now exploring the potential of shallow boreholes with a portable tunnelling machine that can be used almost anywhere—from a garage to a backyard.
What are geothermal wells?
A geothermal well is a borehole designed to harness the Earth’s natural heat for power generation or climate control. Typically, these boreholes extend to underground layers where temperatures are higher, capturing geothermal energy to produce electricity, heating, or cooling in a sustainable way.
In terms of depth, geothermal wells can vary greatly—from shallow heat exchange systems with boreholes only a few metres deep to wells that reach several kilometres for high-enthalpy installations, where heat and pressure generate steam to drive a turbine.
Most common types of geothermal wells:
1. Shallow or low-enthalpy wells
Primarily used for heating and cooling buildings via heat pumps.
Typically drilled to depths of a few dozen metres.
2. Medium-enthalpy wells
Ideal for industrial processes and district heating.
Reach depths of several hundred metres.
3. High enthalpy wells
Can extend between 1,000 and 3,000 metres (or more).
Used for large-scale electricity production by extracting steam and high-temperature geothermal fluids.
A mini-tunneling machine in your garden
If you follow our website, you may have come across our discussions on tunnel boring machines (TBMs)—the massive metal worms that carve through the earth to create tunnels for vehicles and passengers, such as the Quito Metro or São Paulo’s Line 6. These machines can weigh up to 5,000 tonnes and require complex operations, typically featuring a cutting head, a propulsion system, and onboard personnel to control them.
Swiss company Borobotics has taken a different approach, developing a miniature tunnel boring machine for geothermal exploration. While its design is similar to conventional TBMs, the differences are substantial. The machine, named Grabowski after the cartoon mole, is less than 14 centimetres in diameter and only 2.8 metres long. Moreover, its “worm” is autonomous and requires less than eight square metres of space to operate. In fact, both the worm and its surface equipment fit into a small van, and a single operator is enough to handle the installation.
Powered by an electric propulsion system, the device features sensors that detect the type of material it is drilling through and automatically stop if it encounters a water or gas deposit, which it can also seal on its own. Additionally, it can adjust its direction as it drills, following the path of least resistance. It is capable of boring through various ground types, from sand to granite.
According to its creators, Grabowski can reach depths of up to 500 metres—still far from conventional geothermal wells but more than sufficient to stabilise a home’s temperature. They note that at a depth of 250 metres, the average temperature is around 14°C. Geothermal heat pumps circulate air to cool buildings in summer and warm them in winter relative to the outdoor temperature.
If you’re interested in other innovative renewable energy solutions beyond geothermal wells and solar power, check out our articles on thetriboelectric effect and wave energy.