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Oil prices surged on Friday in the biggest move in more than three years as Israel’s air strikes against Iran threaten supplies across the region and sparked a rush to safe haven assets.

In early afternoon in Asia Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose about 8 per cent to $74.88 and US marker West Texas Intermediate rose more than 8 per cent to $73.67, with traders concerned the conflict could hit energy supplies in one of the world’s most important oil and gas producing regions.

Michael Alfaro, chief investment officer at Gallo Partners, a hedge fund focused on energy and industrials, said the attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities marked a “seismic escalation” in the conflict.

“We’re staring down the barrel of a prolonged conflict that’s almost certain to keep oil prices elevated,” he said.

Gold, an asset seen as a haven, rose by roughly 1.2 per cent during Asian trading hours to $3,427 per ounce.

There are multiple risks for the energy sector from a renewed conflict.

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway separating Iran from the Gulf states, is a conduit for around a third of the world’s seaborne oil supplies. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close it in the event of an attack. 

Some of the world’s largest oilfields, including in Saudi Arabia and Iraq, are also within reach of Iran’s missiles and drones. In 2019 Iran was widely believed to be behind an attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities that briefly pushed the price of crude.

Qatar is also one of the world’s largest suppliers of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and its shipments must traverse Hormuz to reach international markets at a time of tight global supplies. 

Helima Croft, a former CIA analyst who is now at RBC Capital Markets, questioned whether the latest strike was a limited military engagement, as occurred in autumn, or if Iran would target regional energy supplies.

“The key question is whether Iran seeks to internationalise the cost of tonight’s action by targeting regional energy infrastructure,” Croft said.

US President Donald Trump has previously pledged to keep oil prices low to help tame inflation.

After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine the Biden administration released around 300mn barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the world’s largest emergency stockpile, to help keep prices in check.

If the oil price surge is prolonged or supplies are disrupted from the Middle East, Trump could utilise the SPR, but in the past he has criticised former President Joe Biden for draining the reserve to its lowest level in 40 years. The SPR currently has around 400mn barrels, well below its 727mn barrel capacity.

Traders will also look for any response from the Opec+ group of oil producers. Saudi Arabia, one of the group’s most powerful members, condemned Israel’s attack on Friday. 

The group, of which Iran is a member, has been raising production in recent months but may face additional pressure from the Trump administration to tap it’s additional capacity to keep markets well supplied.

Stocks in the benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell by around 1.3 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 1.28 per cent and 0.7 per cent respectively.

The price of Bitcoin fell as much as 3 per cent on Friday in Asia hours, matching a broad sell-off of risk assets across the region.

The price of one Bitcoin dropped briefly to the $103,000 level, before rallying slightly to $104,000.

September Management founder Jonathan Dickins participated in a rare on-stage interview at SXSW London on Friday (June 6).

Speaking with broadcaster Edith Bowman, Dickins reflected on his 20-year journey from being “a pretty average A&R guy at a major record company” to managing some of the biggest artists in the world – including superstar Adele.

The conversation spanned the work behind constructing a temporary stadium in Munich for Adele’s record-breaking residency to nurturing long-term careers of September Management artists like Jamie T, among others.

MBW had a front row seat. Here are five things we learned…

1. Long-term artist development trumps viral moments every time

Dickins is adamant that sustainable success comes from patient career building rather than chasing social media trends or viral moments. He emphasized this philosophy using various examples of artists who have developed over time.

“I’m proud of the work we’ve done [with artists] like Jamie T. The last album [The Theory of Whatever ] was his first No.1 album [in the UK]. He’s 37 years old, and, you know, he came out at the same time [as] the Klaxons and the Kooks.

“We’ve just continued to grow, and that culminated in [Jamie T] selling 35,000 tickets at Finsbury Park two years ago.”

But Dickins believes the industry is finally embracing “long-term thinking” when it comes to artist development.

“I think there’s a new way of thinking where it isn’t necessarily like, it has all got to happen on the first record. And long may that continue, because we as a business, really need to concentrate more and more [on] development of artists. Quick fixes usually just give short-term results.”

In the wider industry, he pointed to artists like Sleep Token, Mitski and Turnstile as having developed long-term and finding success. “I would put my money on Turnstile being the next really big alternative rock [band], 15 years in the making,” he said.

“Sleep Token have been putting music out since 2016.” Sleep Token’s Even in Arcadia (RCA) recently hit No.1 on the US album chart.

“Long-term thinking, long-term planning, and long-term strategies are key,” added Dickins.

2. Modern management is all about teamwork and self-sufficiency

Asked about what’s changed the most in management over the past 20 years, Dickins said: “When we look back at [the history] management, you always look at individuals. It’s like, Brian Epstein or Jon Landau, always men by the way, which is bollocks. There are brilliant managers [who are]. women out there. But I don’t think it’s about the individual [managers] anymore.

“Management is a team, and in a weird way, what we’re trying to build are services that kind of mirror a small record company. We build self-sufficiency.”

He explained that September Management has developed extensive in-house capabilities:

“What I mean by self-sufficiency is that we have a place where people can record. We have a facility where people can put music out as a record label. And more importantly, we have digital [capabilities] in-house. And that’s been very valuable.”

This approach allows the company to maintain control and quality: “[The September team] have already added value to that, and they almost, in a way, supply some of the functions that you would expect to find at a social media agency or a record company.

“It’s not about individuals. It’s really about teams and having resources in-house, which means that you can be self-sufficient and not rely on other people.”

3. The Munich stadium project set new standards for bespoke artist experiences

Adele’s 10-night stadium residency in Munich in August 2024 represented a completely new model for touring, one that Dickins describes as “the single biggest grossing show by a female artist in history for one city.”

The event attracted over 730,000 fans, making it the highest-attendance concert residency outside of Las Vegas, according to Live Nation and Ticketmaster.

“No one’s done anything like it,” said Dickens. “I just don’t want to be generic. I want us to try new things. I don’t just want to be doing the same shit as everyone else, playing the same venues.”

The project involved constructing a purpose-built venue in the car park of the Messe in Munich, and even earned a Guinness World Record for the “Largest Continuous Outdoor LED Screen.”

“As soon as people entered the walkway into the stadium, it [was] a reflection on Adele,” Dickins explained. “So you had two pressures. You had the pressure of building the show, like you do with any tour. Then you had the pressure of building the surroundings.”

The venue operated more like a festival than a traditional concert, as Dickins explained: “She went on about 8:15 pm, for probably a two-hour show, but we had the license in the venue until 1 am.

“At 1 am in the morning, there were 22,000 people in there, still drinking, hanging out… We [created] an environment where people [experienced] a mini festival. It was a festival for one artist.”

The approach created two distinct experiences for Adele: “We had the Munich show, which [was] so big and huge, and then we [had] the complete antithesis of that with Las Vegas, which was … small and intimate, playing a room of, I think, 4,000 people. And then the other side of that was building this stadium and having 80,000 people in it every night.”

4. Historical streaming deals are creating an unfair system for some artists

Dickins was asked about how the industry has changed for artists, and the conversations he’s having with artists in terms of fighting for them in the music business. He was particularly critical of how pre-streaming record deals are being treated in the current landscape.

“If you’re in a deal in the UK music business [signed in around ] 2010, just prior to streaming and you weren’t in the position to be able to renegotiate that deal, you are getting paid a fucking slave rate for historical catalog,” he said.

“Artists [who signed a deal] in 2006, 2007, I don’t think it’s uncommon to see those artists getting paid a royalty of 14% on streaming.

Asked by Bowman what can be done for artists in that situation, Dickens explained: “You’re talking about times when every deal was in perpetuity of contract. So there’s not much you can do.”

He explained how this creates a profitable situation for labels at artists’ expense: “New music becomes a loss leader. Everybody’s really holding on to these historical [contracts], because there’s a lot of money to be made in streaming.

“As an artist gets bigger, no one’s invested in the catalog. It’s just sitting there, and they’re spending no money on marketing, and those streaming numbers are just hitting the bottom line. So it’s pure profit, and when that’s being shared, I think [at] a really poor rate [with] those artists [who signed deals] at the time, I think it’s not right.

“That’s the problem for artists pre-streaming; deals before 2011, 2012. Since then, there’s much more flexibility for artists.”

Elsewhere, Dickens highlighted the importance for artists to focus on making good music:

“I believe that, when you have a successful business with an artist, the recorded part of it could end up being a little bit like special projects. But music is central to everything.

“Without the music, it doesn’t drive all these other areas. You’ve got to be focused on making great music, but at the same time, it’s definitely important to look at growing outside the areas of the traditional verticals.”

5. Relevance is about combining youth and experience, not choosing between them. 

For Dickins, staying relevant in the music industry requires embracing both fresh perspectives and accumulated wisdom.

“I’ve always been neither disrespectful of experience nor disrespectful of youth, because they both offer different things.

“It’s mind-blowing to me how internet savvy the younger generation are [compared] to someone of my age. It’s important as well that you’re always [exploring] new models and new things, because the last thing you want is your artist to get old with you.”

Dickins added: “I’m always interested in people who are designing or producing shows or making music in terms of production, or beat makers. It’s really important as a company that we’re on top of things.”

But experience proves crucial when success arrives: “Experience comes in [useful] when artists become a bit more successful. People lose their minds when it blows up. They get gassed up. And then when it comes to [the] real business, which is touring, and some of the stuff around that, and the costs, if you don’t get a bunch of that right, artists can lose fortunes. And that’s where I think experience comes in.

“I think it’s really about having a blend of youth and experience. I don’t think one works without the other. I always want to try to get that blend as good as we possibly can.”

Elsewhere in the conversation, Dickins explained that he’s “not worried” about the company getting any bigger than it is today.

“I’m proud that the company is 100% independent,” he said. “I’m really happy about that. There’s no private equity, there’s no big corporate funding.

“I’ve never wanted to be a management supermarket. I’ve always wanted to get better, rather than bigger.”Music Business Worldwide