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Intelligent Contact Lenses: A Glimpse into the Future

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A glance at the passengers in a subway car is enough to see that cell phones have changed how we communicate (and not communicate). However, it is also clear that the evolution of these terminals has been slowing down. While a decade ago there were qualitative leaps forward, today manufacturers announce a larger number of cameras or megapixels. Could we be on the verge of a technological breakthrough? Augmented and mixed reality and the development of new contact lenses and smart glasses suggest we are.

In this article, you will learn about the following:

 

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How do smart contact lenses work?

The ultimate goal of smart contact lenses and smart glasses is to free us from the tyranny of the cell phone in our hand. This is achieved by using a non-intrusive device that performs essential computing functions. This is known as “invisible computing,” a term coined by cognitive science professor Don Norman of the University of California in the late 20th century. In this new paradigm, technology will adapt to the user’s needs and body, as with mixed reality glasses or wearables, and information will only be displayed when needed.   

To achieve this, translucent materials are being investigated that incorporate circuitry and display information on the lens substrate. Thanks to the very nature of the device, the images will accompany eye movement. It is expected that smart contact lenses will integrate this type of technology:

  • Autofocus capability
  • Wireless antenna
  • Processors
  • Sensors (accelerometers, gyroscopes, thermometers, etc.)
  • MicroLED or similar displays

It is still too early to tell in which direction this new generation of contact lenses will move. Still, most of the computational processing and data storage will possibly take place on other devices such as cell phones or even in the cloud.

This type of research has been underway for several years. In fact, Google announced in 2014 that it would develop a smart contact lens to measure glucose levels, but the project did not come to fruition. Then came Google Glass, which was not very well received either. Apple is rumored to be planning augmented reality glasses that would go virtually unnoticed. For now, however, it seems that no one has managed to hit the mark. But that could happen soon. 

A first working prototype of a smart contact lens

A U.S. manufacturer has just announced that it has completed its first working prototype of a smart lens. The new device is a “scleral” lens, i.e. it covers the entire eye and not just the pupil and iris. According to its developers, they have successfully integrated the display, communications systems, and battery into a tiny convex sheet. The first generation will display monochrome images with 14,000 pixels per inch density.  

Apart from the hardware, another breakthrough is developing the operating system and user interface (UX), allowing new applications and use cases to be tested with partners and consumers. The conjunction of the software and the integrated hardware solution will enable the technology to be tested in real-world scenarios over the coming months and years.  

The initial goal of the new contact lenses is to offer a vision enhancement system to help people with partial blindness distinguish items such as road signs. However, they are also evaluating partnerships with sports shoe manufacturers and fitness companies, as applications promise to increase exponentially.

Main applications of smart contact lenses

Everything suggests that the first application of smart contact lenses will be to display basic data such as the boarding gate number at the airport, the distance of an object, or the number of steps in a training session. Later, if the technology catches on, we may see things like this:

  • Dynamic focus. The lenses will detect whether the wearer is reading a nearby text or looking at an object in the distance and focus automatically.
  • Health monitoring, thanks to the measurement of glucose, eye pressure, or eye temperature. In the future, these lenses may even be able to detect tumor markers.
  • Augmented and mixed reality. As soon as contact lenses can display complex images and modulate their opacity level, a user will be able to see virtual objects.
  • Basic applications such as compasses, map directions, or calendar reminders are now constrained to the cell phone or computer.
  • Medication administration for the treatment of diseases such as glaucoma.

For these applications and many others that are still unknown to us to become a reality, major scientific and technological breakthroughs in the miniaturization of batteries, processors and circuits will be needed. It will also be necessary to improve the ergonomics of contact lenses so that they can be worn comfortably throughout the day. Who knows if one day you will read an article like this one about smart contact lenses. Just in case, you can subscribe to our newsletter at the bottom of this page.  

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AI predicted by Geoffrey Hinton to lead to significant job loss and increased profits.

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Pioneering computer scientist Geoffrey Hinton, whose work has earned him a Nobel Prize and the moniker “godfather of AI,” said artificial intelligence will spark a surge in unemployment and profits.

In a wide-ranging interview with the Financial Times, the former Google scientist cleared the air about why he left the tech giant, raised alarms on potential threats from AI, and revealed how he uses the technology. But he also predicted who the winners and losers will be.

“What’s actually going to happen is rich people are going to use AI to replace workers,” Hinton said. “It’s going to create massive unemployment and a huge rise in profits. It will make a few people much richer and most people poorer. That’s not AI’s fault, that is the capitalist system.”

That echos comments he gave to Fortune last month, when he said AI companies are more concerned with short-term profits than the long-term consequences of the technology.

For now, layoffs haven’t spiked, but evidence is mounting that AI is shrinking opportunities, especially at the entry level where recent college graduates start their careers.

A survey from the New York Fed found that companies using AI are much more likely to retrain their employees than fire them, though layoffs are expected to rise in the coming months.

Hinton said earlier that healthcare is the one industry that will be safe from the potential jobs armageddon.

“If you could make doctors five times as efficient, we could all have five times as much health care for the same price,” he explained on the Diary of a CEO YouTube series in June. “There’s almost no limit to how much health care people can absorb—[patients] always want more health care if there’s no cost to it.”

Still, Hinton believes that jobs that perform mundane tasks will be taken over by AI, while sparing some jobs that require a high level of skill.

In his interview with the FT, he also dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s idea to pay a universal basic income as AI disrupts the economy and reduce demand for workers, saying it “won’t deal with human dignity” and the value people derive from having jobs.

Hinton has long warned about the dangers of AI without guardrails, estimating a 10% to 20% chance of the technology wiping out humans after the development of superintelligence.

In his view, the dangers of AI fall into two categories: the risk the technology itself poses to the future of humanity, and the consequences of AI being manipulated by people with bad intent.

In his FT interview, he warned AI could help someone build a bioweapon and lamented the Trump administration’s unwillingness to regulate AI more closely, while China is taking the threat more seriously. But he also acknowledged potential upside from AI amid its immense possibilities and uncertainties.

“We don’t know what is going to happen, we have no idea, and people who tell you what is going to happen are just being silly,” Hinton said. “We are at a point in history where something amazing is happening, and it may be amazingly good, and it may be amazingly bad. We can make guesses, but things aren’t going to stay like they are.”

Meanwhile, he told the FT how he uses AI in his own life, saying OpenAI’s ChatGPT is his product of choice. While he mostly uses the chatbot for research, Hinton revealed that a former girlfriend used ChatGPT “to tell me what a rat I was” during their breakup.

“She got the chatbot to explain how awful my behavior was and gave it to me. I didn’t think I had been a rat, so it didn’t make me feel too bad . . . I met somebody I liked more, you know how it goes,” he quipped.

Hinton also explained why he left Google in 2023. While media reports have said he quit so he could speak more freely about the dangers of AI, the 77-year-old Nobel laureate denied that was the reason.

“I left because I was 75, I could no longer program as well as I used to, and there’s a lot of stuff on Netflix I haven’t had a chance to watch,” he said. “I had worked very hard for 55 years, and I felt it was time to retire . . . And I thought, since I am leaving anyway, I could talk about the risks.”

Fortune Global Forum returns Oct. 26–27, 2025 in Riyadh. CEOs and global leaders will gather for a dynamic, invitation-only event shaping the future of business. Apply for an invitation.

London Police Charge Over 300 Pro-Palestinian Protesters with Terrorism

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new video loaded: At Least 300 Pro-Palestinian Protesters Charged With Terrorism in London

transcript

transcript

At Least 300 Pro-Palestinian Protesters Charged With Terrorism in London

They were demonstrating in support of Palestine Action, an activist group that the British government designated a terrorist organization in July.

Shame on you.

Big Machine Label Group strengthens global team during 20th anniversary celebration in Nashville

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Big Machine Label Group (BMLG) has revealed a series of promotions and a new hire within its international division.

Alex Hannaby, Iren Coutiel, Roxanne Gwillam-Kelly, and Flo Myerscough-Harris have taken on elevated roles, with Cary Dal-Lago joining as the newest team member.

In the press release announcing the news, BMLG noted that the all-female team will continue to lead the label’s international efforts across key markets, including the UK, Australia, and beyond.

The news marks the continued expansion of the HYBE America-owned company, which has also recently been recruiting for a Director, Business & Legal Affairs and Director, Audience Development in Nashville.

The expansion of the International team also marks a significant milestone as the company celebrates its 20th Anniversary and 10 years since the launch of Big Machine UK.

Recently elevated to include VP, International Marketing & Operations, in addition to her role as Head of UK, Alex Hannaby has been instrumental in accelerating BMLG’s global expansion while significantly boosting the UK’s role in its international success, achieving consistent growth in revenue under her leadership.

Hannaby also devised and coordinated the launch of the UK’s first official Country music radio chart – an industry-first that elevated the genre’s visibility across the region.

In just the past 18 months, Hannaby and her team have driven BMLG singles from artists like Riley Green, Thomas Rhett, and Jackson Dean to No.1 on Country radio in the UK and Australia.

Their strategic campaigns have led to notable achievements including Carly Pearce’s sold-out UK tour and upcoming performance at the Opry 100, as well as Dolly Parton’s career-best debut for Rockstar, which landed Top 5 chart positions in both the UK and Australia.

“This next phase of advancement and collaboration allows us to build on the momentum we’ve created and unlock even more opportunities for our roster around the world.”

Alex Hannaby

“I’m thrilled to take on this expanded role as Big Machine continues to grow internationally,” said Hannaby.

“It’s an exciting next chapter, and I’m looking forward to continuing to champion our incredible artists on a global scale. This next phase of advancement and collaboration allows us to build on the momentum we’ve created and unlock even more opportunities for our roster around the world.”

Elsewhere, in the International team, Senior International Digital & Commercial Manager Iren Coutiel started her career as a label intern with BMLG in 2017.

In her expanded role, she will now lead content strategy, influencer marketing, advertising, D2C initiatives, and DSPs across all international markets, driving the label’s global presence and digital growth.

Scott Borchetta

“From the onset of Big Machine Records, a global focus was a must, and our UK-based team has led the way in building the Country format, not only in the UK, but all across Europe.”

Scott Borchetta, BMLG

International Marketing & Promotions Manager Roxanne Gwillam-Kelly, meanwhile, has played a key role in BMLG’s International department for more than four years, leading what BMLG calls “innovative, globally focused campaigns”.

Her expanded responsibilities include overseeing projects in the UK and beyond.

After joining BMLG in 2021, International Marketing & Promotions Manager Flo Myerscough-Harris expands her role from overseeing select projects in the UK to include other international territories.

BMLG’s latest addition to the international team, International Label Intern Cary Dal-Lago, brings “a global perspective to her work,” according to BMLG.

A recent graduate of the University of Westminster with a Master’s in Music Business Management, she previously spent her time creating concert-focused content at Your Culture, capturing live performances, and curating engaging visuals for social media. Dal-Lago will assist on all global BMLG projects moving forward.

“From the onset of Big Machine Records, a global focus was a must, and our UK-based team has led the way in building the Country format, not only in the UK, but all across Europe,” added BMLG Founder, Chairman & CEO Scott Borchetta.

“They consistently find new ways to expand our footprint and drive revenue with incredible passion, execution and creativity!”


Founded in 2005 by Borchetta, BMLG was acquired by Scooter Braun’s Ithaca Holdings in 2019. The entirety of Ithaca, including BMLG and Braun’s SB Projects, was then acquired by South Korea’s HYBE in a $1.05 billion deal in 2021.

Today, Big Machine Label Group encompasses Big Machine Records, The Valory Music Co., Nashville Harbor Records & Entertainment, and publishing company Big Machine Music.

The BMLG artist roster includes Tim McGraw, Sheryl Crow, Thomas Rhett, Mötley Crüe, Rascal Flatts, Lady A, Riley Green, Carly Pearce, Justin Moore, Brett Young, The Band Perry, Brantley Gilbert, Midland, RaeLynn, Jackson Dean, and Aaron Lewis; plus rising talents Braedon Barnhill, Caroline Jones, and Chase McDaniel.

It also includes Cole Goodwin, Greylan James, LECADE, Mackenzie Carpenter, Marfa, Mae Estes, Noah Hicks, Preston Cooper, Ryan Hurd, Shaylen, Something Out West, The Cadillac Three and The Jack Wharff Band.Music Business Worldwide

Survivors in Afghanistan face challenges following devastating earthquake

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In the mountains of southeast Afghanistan, whole villages have been reduced to piles of stone and mud.

Nearly one week after a devastating earthquake struck Kunar province, residents are mourning their families and figuring out how they can possibly survive, having lost everything.

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A magnitude 6.0 tremor struck the remote mountainous region last weekend, killing more than 2,200 people.

“The victims face only two choices, to leave, or die,” Al Jazeera’s Ali Hashem reported from Kunar province, the epicentre of the quake.

Following the earthquake, strong aftershocks were reported on Friday, injuring at least 10, and raising fears of more death and destruction.

Survivor Gul Rahim from Kunar province lost 63 members of his family in the quake, including his five-year-old daughter Fatima.

A man tries to clear rubble of a collapsed house in Mazar Dara, Kunar province, Afghanistan [File: Hedayat Shah/AP Photo]

“We were asleep at home when, at midnight, the earthquake struck. All the houses collapsed and everyone was screaming,” he told Al Jazeera, sitting on the ruins of his home, with several bags of whatever belongings he could recover.

“I managed to get out, but my youngest daughter was trapped inside, crying, ‘Father, get me out of here!” By the time we reached her, she had passed away,” he said, his voice trembling with grief.

“She was my youngest and most beloved daughter.”

Rahim said another 100 or so of his neighbours were killed in the quake.

“The dead and injured were countless. The earthquake was terrifying, and leads people to despair,” he added.

The majority of victims are from Kunar province, where most people live in wood and mud-brick homes built along steep river valleys surrounded by towering mountains.

The World Health Organization (WHO) said as of September 3, at least 6,700 homes have been destroyed.

Rahim told Al Jazeera he was now living in a tent, and was worried about winter approaching as the area receives “heavy snowfall”.

“What we need most are proper homes to survive the cold,” he said. “I call on the whole world, Muslims and non-Muslims alike, to help us. We have lost everything, even our livestock and chickens. Nothing remains.”

Rescue efforts continue

Treacherous roads, relentless aftershocks and limited aid mean many communities remain cut off.

“Getting here was a harrowing experience,” recounted Al Jazeera’s Hashem. “We were driving for hours on winding cliffside roads, with aftershocks shaking the ground beneath us until we finally made it.

While rescue workers were “working around the clock” in search of survivors, hope was fading, Hashem said. “The official death toll isn’t final, with so many still missing, the number will most certainly rise,” he noted.

WHO has said landslides and blocked roads have obstructed relief work. The organisation has appealed for $4m in funds to provide “life-saving health interventions” coupled with supporting “water, sanitation, and hygiene activities” for residents.

“They need food assistance, safety, and medicine for the children,” volunteer Abdulrahman Sharafat told Al Jazeera.

Afghanistan is prone to powerful earthquakes because it sits where the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates meet. In October 2023, the western province of Herat experienced a magnitude 6.0 earthquake, resulting in more than 2,000 deaths.

A year earlier, a magnitude 6.1 earthquake struck the eastern provinces of Paktika, Paktia, Khost, and Nangarhar, killing about 1,000 people.

Client’s Challenge: A Test of Skills and Resilience

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South Korea quickly responds to address raid on US facility

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South Korea’s government has held an emergency meeting and vowed to swiftly respond to the arrests of hundreds of its citizens in a massive immigration raid at a Hyundai plant in the US.

Seoul has dispatched diplomats to the site in Georgia, while LG Energy Solution, which operates the plant with Hyundai, said it was suspending most business trips to the US.

US officials detained 475 people – mostly South Korean nationals – who they said were found to be illegally working at the battery facility, one of the largest foreign investment projects in the state.

The White House defended the operation, dismissing concerns that the raid could deter foreign investment.

“They were illegal aliens and ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] was just doing its job,” President Donald Trump said following the raids on Friday.

Video released by ICE officials showed Asian workers shackled in front of a building, with some wearing yellow vests with names such as “Hyundai” and “LG CNS.”

“People on short-term or recreational visas are not authorized to work in the US,” ICE said, adding that the raid was necessary to protect American jobs.

“This operation sends a clear message that those who exploit the system and undermine our workforce will be held accountable,” Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) Special Agent Steven Schrank said in a statement on Saturday.

South Korea, a close US ally, has pledged tens of billions of dollars in American manufacturing investment, partly to offset tariffs.

The timing of the raid, as the two governments engage in sensitive trade talks, has raised concern in Seoul.

Trump has actively encouraged major investments from other countries while also tightening visa allocations for foreign companies.

Many of the LG employees arrested were on business trips with various visas or under a visa waiver programme, officials say.

South Korea’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Cho Hyun said he felt a “great sense of responsibility for the arrest of our citizens” as he presided over an emergency meeting about the issue on Saturday.

He said the government had set up a team to respond to the arrests and that he may travel to Washington if needed.

On Saturday, LG Energy Solution said it was sending its Chief Human Resources Officer Kim Ki-soo to the Georgia site on Sunday.

“We are making all-out efforts to secure the swift release of detained individuals from our company and partner firms,” it said in a statement to the South Korean media.

“We are confirming regular medications for families through an emergency contact network for detainees and plan to request that necessary medications be delivered to those detained.”

The company said it was suspending most business trips to the US and directing employees on assignment in the US to return home immediately.

South Korean media widely described the raid as a “shock,” with the Dong-A Ilbo newspaper warning it could have “a chilling effect on the activities of our businesses in the United States”.

The factory, which makes new electric vehicles, had been touted by Georgia’s Republican governor as the biggest economic development project in the state’s history, employing 1,200 people.

The arrested workers were being held at an ICE facility in Folkston, Georgia, until the agency decides where to move them next.

LG Energy Solution said 47 of its employees and about 250 workers for contractors at the joint venture factory were detained.

Trump downplays potential regime change in Venezuela as US deploys stealth fighter jets

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Trump plays down possible regime change in Venezuela; US deploys stealth fighter jets

One year later, family of US citizen slain by Israel continues fight for justice | Israel-Palestine conflict update

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Washington, DC – One year after Israeli forces killed United States citizen Aysenur Ezgi Eygi, her husband, Hamid Ali, says confusion and sorrow continue to grip his life.

“It’s been very painful adjusting to life without Aysenur – an empty house, seeing the effect it’s had on her father and her family. The word I’d use to summarise is confusing,” Ali told Al Jazeera.

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Ezgi Eygi, whose first name is pronounced Aysha-nour, was fatally shot by Israeli forces while participating in a protest against an illegal settler outpost in the occupied West Bank on September 6, 2024.

As Israel intensifies its assault on Gaza, violence in the West Bank has also been on the rise. At least 10 US citizens have been killed by Israeli soldiers and settlers since 2022.

The administrations of Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump have ignored calls by Ezgi Eygi’s family for a US-led investigation into her killing while Washington has continued to provide Israel with billions of dollars in military aid.

Ozden Bennett, Ezgi Eygi’s sister, said she understands that justice may not be within sight but that does not shake the family’s resolve to keep the slain activist’s memory alive.

“We’re committed to the long-haul journey of seeking justice and accountability and finding meaning in the process of doing that, even if it doesn’t happen immediately or perhaps ever. I’m hopeful it will,” Bennett told Al Jazeera.

“I see us continuing to ask for accountability and justice for my sister because it’s the right thing to do and she deserves that. Every life taken senselessly by Israel deserves that.”

Remembering Aysenur

Ezgi Eygi, who was of Turkish descent and lived in Seattle, Washington, was 26 when she was killed. Those who knew her said she was joyous and empathetic.

She had been engaged in activism from a young age and was deeply moved by injustices in the US and abroad. Both Ali and Bennett described her as almost “childlike” in her compassion and playfulness.

“She always had that kind of childlike essence to her, that curiosity, that silliness,” Bennett said. “She was such a special, sweet – sometimes annoying – sister that I just miss so much.”

Ali believes it was that authenticity that drove her to activism.

“She was someone who had to live by her values and her beliefs, and she had to say how she felt,” he told Al Jazeera.

“So that’s the kind of person she was, and that’s exactly why she felt like doing the activism that she did in the [United] States wasn’t enough. She felt like going to the West Bank was the next thing that she was able to do.”

At least two more US citizens have been killed in the West Bank since Ezgi Eygi was shot.

In July, settlers beat Florida-born 20-year-old Sayfollah Musallet to death. Less than three weeks later, Khamis Ayyad, 40, a father of five and former Chicago resident, was also killed in another settler attack.

In both cases, the families are calling for a US investigation into the killings, citing statutes that would enable such an investigation, including the US-Israel Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty.

But the Trump administration has only called on Israel to investigate its own abuses. Israel rarely finds wrongdoing in the conduct of its forces against Palestinians and their supporters.

Similarly, when Ezgi Eygi was killed last year, the administration of then-President Biden called on Israel to investigate the incident, but it failed to launch its own inquiry.

‘The hypocrisy is staggering’

That lack of accountability is a recurring pattern. In all 10 cases of Americans being killed by Israeli settlers and soldiers since 2022, no criminal charges have been brought against the perpetrators

The victims include veteran Al Jazeera reporter Shireen Abu Akleh, who was shot in the head while wearing a bright blue jacket labelled “press”.

Rights advocates have called the inaction a form of impunity for those who kill Americans overseas. They trace the trend back decades, as far back as 2003, when an Israeli bulldozer ran over activist Rachel Corrie in Gaza.

She had been trying to protect a Palestinian home from demolition at the time of her death.

Corrie, who was also from Washington state, is now one of the icons of the Palestinian cause in the West. Still, no one has been held accountable for her killing.

Ali drew a parallel between his wife’s death and Corrie’s killing.

“It was the same with Rachel Corrie, and that was 20-plus years ago, so this isn’t anything new unfortunately,” he said.

“We know the pattern, but it’s still frustrating all the same and extremely hypocritical.”

Despite that frustration, Ezgi Eygi’s family members have been bringing their demands to US lawmakers and officials in an effort to keep the case alive.

Last year, they met with then-Secretary of State Antony Blinken, but according to Ali and Bennett, the top US diplomat conveyed an inability – a proverbial shrugging of the shoulders – to seek justice.

But days before Ezgi Eygi was killed, the US Department of Justice ​filed “terrorism, murder conspiracy and sanctions-evasion” charges against Hamas leaders after the killing of the US-Israeli captive Hersh Goldberg-Polin in Gaza.

For Bennett, the contrast in the US approach is clear. “It sends a message that not all American lives are equal,” she told Al Jazeera.

Raed Jarrar, the advocacy director at the US-based rights group DAWN, said the US failure to pursue accountability for Ezgi Eygi and other US citizens killed by Israel shows that Washington “values Israeli impunity more than American lives”.

“The hypocrisy is staggering. When US citizens are killed by anyone else, the US government mobilises every diplomatic, economic and military tool at its disposal to demand justice and accountability,” Jarrar told Al Jazeera.

“But when Israel kills Americans, the US accepts Israeli ‘investigations’ and excuses, sends more weapons and shields Israel from international accountability.”

‘Irrelevant’ Israeli probe

An initial Israeli military report after the killing of Ezgi Eygi said she was likely killed by “indirect and unintended” fire. But witnesses have said she was targeted in the head by a sniper.

There have been reports that a broader Israeli investigation into the incident was also launched, but there have been no public announcements about its results.

The Israeli government’s Foreign Press Department did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment.

Bennett said the family is not expecting any measure of accountability to come out of an Israeli probe.

“The Israeli investigation – to us – is irrelevant because it’s not appropriate or acceptable to have Israel, the perpetrator of the murder, investigate itself,” she said.

For Ali, justice for Ezgi Eygi may appear elusive, but if her memory can help in the liberation of the Palestinian people, he said, that would ease his sense of loss.

“I’m not necessarily confident that it will happen anytime soon or that accountability will come anytime soon, but I know in one form or another, it will come,” Ali said.

Deutsche Bank Analyzes the Dark Side of AI: A More Cautious Approach Compared to the Dotcom Bubble, Highlighting Concerning Data Center Calculations

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Deutsche Bank analysts have been watching Amazon Prime, it seems. Specifically, the “breakout” show of the summer, “The Summer I Turned Pretty.” In the AI sphere, analysts Adrian Cox and Stefan Abrudan wrote, it was the summer AI “turned ugly,” with several emerging themes that will set the course for the final quarter of the year. Paramount among them: The rising fear over whether AI has driven Big Tech stocks into the kind of frothy territory that precedes a sharp drop.

The AI news cycle of the summer captured themes including the challenge of starting a career, the importance of technology in the China/U.S. trade war, and mounting anxiety about the impact of the technology. But in terms of finance and investing, Deutsche Bank sees markets “on edge” and hoping for a soft landing amid bubble fears. In part, it blames tech CEOs for egging on the market with overpromises, leading to inflated hopes and dreams, many spurred on by tech leaders’ overpromises. It also sees a major impact from the venture capital space, boosting startups’ valuations, and from the lawyers who are very busy filing lawsuits for all kinds of AI players. It’s ugly out there. But the market is actually “more sober” in many ways than the situation from the late 1990s, the German bank argues.

Still, Wall Street is not Main Street, and Deutsche Bank notes troubling math about the data centers sprouting up on the outskirts of your town. Specifically, the bank flags a back-of-the-envelope analysis from hedge fund Praetorian Capital that suggests hyperscalers’ massive data center investments could be setting up the market for negative returns, echoing past cycles of “capital destruction.”

AI hype and market volatility

AI has captured the market’s imagination, with Cox and Abrudan noting, “it’s clear there is a lot of hype.” Web searches for AI are 10 times as high as they ever were for crypto, the bank said, citing Google Trends data, while it also finds that S&P 500 companies mentioned “AI” over 3,300 times in their earnings calls this past quarter.

Stock valuations overall have soared alongside the “Magnificent Seven” tech firms, which collectively comprise a third of the S&P 500’s market cap. (The most magnificent: Nvidia, now the world’s most valuable company at a market cap exceeding $4 trillion.) Yet Deutsche Bank points out that today’s top tech players have healthier balance sheets and more resilient business models than the high flyers of the dotcom era.

By most ratios, the bank said, valuations “still look more sober than those for hot stocks at the height of the dot-com bubble,” when the Nasdaq more than tripled in less than 18 months to March 2000, then lost 75% of its value by late 2002. By price-to-earnings ratio, Alphabet and Meta are in the mid-20x range, while Amazon and Microsoft trade in the mid-30x range. By comparison, Cisco surpassed 200x during the dotcom bubble, and even Microsoft reached 80x. Nvidia is “only” 50x, Deutsche Bank noted.

Those data centers, though

Despite the relative restraint in share prices, AI’s real risk may be lurking away from its stock-market valuations, in the economics of its infrastructure. Deutsche Bank cites a blog post by Praetorian Capital “that has been doing the rounds.” The post in “Kuppy’s Korner,” named for the fund’s CEO Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, estimates that hyperscalers’ total data-center spending for 2025 could hit $400 billion, and the bank notes that is roughly the size of the GDP of Malaysia or Egypt. The problem, according to the hedge fund, is that the data centers will depreciate by roughly $40 billion per year, while they currently generate no more than $20 billion of annual revenue. How is that supposed to work?

“Now, remember, revenue today is running at $15 to $20 billion,” the blog post says, explaining that revenue needs to grow at least tenfold just to cover the depreciation. Even assuming future margins rise to 25%, the blog post estimates that the sector would require a stunning $160 billion in annual revenue from the AI powered by those data centers just to break even on depreciation—and nearly $480 billion to deliver a modest 20% return on invested capital. For context, even giants like Netflix and Microsoft Office 365 at their peaks brought in less than a fraction of that figure. Even at that level, “you’d need $480 billion of AI revenue to hit your target return … $480 billion is a LOT of revenue for guys like me who don’t even pay a monthly fee today for the product.” Going from $20 billion to $480 billion could take a long time, if ever, is the implication, and sometime before the big AI platforms reach those levels, their earnings, and presumably their shares, could take a hit.

Deutsche Bank itself isn’t as pessimistic. The bank notes that the data-center buildout is producing a greatly reduced cost for each use of an AI model, as startups are reaching “meaningful scale in cloud consumption.” Also, consumer AI such as ChatGPT and Gemini is growing fast, with OpenAI saying in August that ChatGPT had over 700 million weekly users, plus 5 million paying business users, up from 3 million three months earlier. The cost to query an AI model (subsidized by the venture capital sector, to be sure) has fallen by around 99.7% in the two years since the launch of ChatGPT and is still headed downward.

Echoes of prior bubbles

Praetorian Capital draws two historical parallels to the current situation: the dotcom era’s fiber buildout, which led to the bankruptcy of Global Crossing, and the more recent capital bust of shale oil. In each case, the underlying technology is real and transformative—but overzealous spending with little regard for returns could leave investors holding the bag if progress stalls.

The “arms race” mentality now gripping the hyperscalers’ massive capex buildout mirrors the capital intensity of those past crises, and as Praetorian notes, “even the MAG7 will not be immune” if shareholder patience runs out. Per Kuppy’s Korner, “the megacap tech names are forced to lever up to keep buying chips, after having outrun their own cash flows; or they give up on the arms race, writing off the past few years of capex … Like many things in finance, it’s all pretty obvious where this will end up, it’s the timing that’s the hard part.”

This cycle, Deutsche Bank argues, is being sustained by robust earnings and more conservative valuations than the dotcom era, but “periodic corrections are welcome, releasing some steam from the system and guarding against complacency.” If revenue growth fails to keep up with depreciation and replacement needs, investors may force a harsh reckoning—one characterized not by spectacular innovation but by a slow realization of negative returns.

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