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The Bank of England has held interest rates at 4.25 per cent but signalled a possible cut as soon as August after recent data showed a weakening jobs market.

The six-to-three vote by the Monetary Policy Committee followed a quarter-point cut in May amid concerns over the impact of US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policy.

“Interest rates remain on a gradual downward path, although we’ve left them on hold today,” said Andrew Bailey, the BoE’s governor.

Thursday’s widely expected decision came as policymakers wrestle with persistently strong inflation and the additional uncertainty posed by the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, and its potential impact on oil prices.

“The world is highly unpredictable,” Bailey added, adding that the central bank would pay careful attention to the impact on inflation of the weak labour market.

Deputy governor Dave Ramsden joined external MPC members Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor in calling for an immediate further cut in rates to 4 per cent.

Gordon Shannon, a fund manager at TwentyFour Asset Management, said the voting pattern was “marginally more dovish” than investors had been expecting.

The MPC predicted a “significant slowing” in pay growth, a sign that another rate cut will be on the table as soon as its August 6 meeting, while also noting that “underlying UK GDP growth appears to have remained weak”.

A report from the BoE’s network of regional agents found business hiring intentions to be “mildly negative” as companies in sectors including manufacturing, retail and construction warned they were not expecting much improvement in customer demand until 2026.

The MPC acknowledged that problems with the UK’s labour market data continued to be a concern, but noted that May’s 109,000 fall in the UK’s official estimate of payrolled employees was the largest monthly contraction since May 2020.

It added that an internal BoE measure suggested a “subdued rate of near-zero employment growth”.

“Labour market developments suggest that the economy is weakening faster than expected,” said Tomasz Wieladek, chief European economist for fixed income at asset manager T Rowe Price.

Earlier this week, data from the Office for National Statistics showed UK consumer price inflation for May at 3.4 per cent, well above the BoE’s 2 per cent target. The central bank expects CPI inflation to remain just under 3.5 per cent for the rest of the year, with a brief rise to 3.7 per cent in September.

The pound was flat against the dollar at $1.341 after the MPC’s decision.

Traders kept their bets on further rate cuts largely unchanged, expecting two quarter-point reductions by the end of the year, according to levels implied by swaps markets.

The BoE emphasised that policy was not on a preset path, adding that it was closely watching “elevated” inflation expectations.

As the worsening conflict in the Middle East risks pushing oil prices higher, the MPC said it would remain “sensitive to heightened unpredictability in the economic and geopolitical environment”, noting recent increases in energy costs.

The BoE reiterated its existing guidance that it would take a “gradual and careful” approach to future rate reductions, which investors have interpreted as pointing towards quarterly cuts.

Additional reporting by Ian Smith

Her main coalition partner has quit and calls are mounting for her to resign or announce an election, throwing the kingdom into a fresh round of political instability as it seeks to boost its spluttering economy and avoid U.S. President Donald Trump’s swinging trade tariffs.

The conservative Bhumjaithai party pulled out on Wednesday saying Paetongtarn’s conduct in the leaked call had wounded the country and the army’s dignity.

As pressure grew on Thursday Paetongtarn, the daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra—Thailand’s most influential but controversial modern politician—apologized at a press conference alongside military chiefs and senior figures from her Pheu Thai party.

“I would like to apologize for the leaked audio of my conversation with a Cambodian leader which has caused public resentment,” Paetongtarn told reporters.

In the call, Paetongtarn is heard discussing an ongoing border dispute with Hun Sen—who stepped down as Cambodian prime minister in 2023 after four decades but still wields considerable influence.

She addresses the veteran leader as “uncle” and refers to the Thai army commander in the country’s northeast as her opponent, a remark that sparked fierce criticism on social media.

The loss of Bhumjaithai’s 69 MPs left Paetongtarn with barely enough votes to scrape a majority in parliament, and a snap election looks a clear possibility—barely two years after the last one in May 2023.

Two other coalition parties, the United Thai Nation and Democrat Party, will hold meetings to discuss the situation later Thursday.

Paetongtarn will be hoping her apology and show of unity with the military are enough to persuade them to stay on board.

Losing either would likely mean the end of Paetongtarn’s government, and either an election or a bid by other parties to stitch together a new coalition.

Resignation calls

Thailand’s military said in a statement that army chief General Pana Claewplodtook “affirms commitment to democratic principles and national sovereignty protection”.

“The Chief of Army emphasized that the paramount imperative is for ‘Thai people to stand united’ in collectively defending national sovereignty,” it added.

Thailand’s armed forces have long played a powerful role in the kingdom’s politics, and politicians are usually careful not to antagonize them.

The kingdom has had a dozen coups since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932, and the current crisis has inevitably triggered rumors that another may be in the offing.

If Paetongtarn is ousted in a coup she would be the third member of her family, after her aunt Yingluck and father Thaksin Shinawatra, to be kicked out of office by the military.

The main opposition People’s Party, which won most seats in 2023 but was blocked by conservative senators from forming a government, urged Paetongtarn to call an election.

“What happened yesterday was a leadership crisis that destroyed people’s trust,” People’s Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut said in a statement.

The Palang Pracharath party, which led the government up to 2023 and is headed by General Prawit Wongsuwan—who supported a 2014 coup against Paetongtarn’s aunt Yingluck—said the leaked recording showed she was weak and inexperienced, incapable of managing the country’s security.

Hundreds of anti-government protesters, some of them veterans of the royalist, anti-Thaksin “Yellow Shirt” movement of the late 2000s, demonstrated outside Government House Thursday demanding Paetongtarn quit.

Awkward coalition

Paetongtarn, 38, came to power in August 2024 at the head of an uneasy coalition between Pheu Thai and a group of conservative, pro-military parties whose members have spent much of the last 20 years battling against her father.

Growing tensions within the coalition erupted into open warfare in the past week as Pheu Thai tried to take the interior minister job away from Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul.

The loss of Bhumjaithai leaves Pheu Thai’s coalition with just a handful more votes than the 248 needed for a majority.

The battle between the conservative pro-royal establishment and Thaksin’s political movement has dominated Thai politics for more than 20 years.

Former Manchester City owner Thaksin, 75, still enjoys huge support from the rural base whose lives he transformed with populist policies in the early 2000s.

But he is despised by Thailand’s powerful elites, who saw his rule as corrupt, authoritarian and socially destabilizing.

The current Pheu Thai-led government has already lost one prime minister, former businessman Srettha Thavisin, who was kicked out by a court order last year that brought Paetongtarn to office.

Wes Donehower has been promoted to the role of Senior Vice President, A&R at Big Loud Records and Mercury Records.

According to Wednesday’s (June 18) announcement, this “unique” dual role originated from the “successful strategic alliance” between Big Loud Records and Mercury Records.

Since signing a multi-year distribution deal back in 2024, the two labels have worked closely together across artists like Big Loud’s Morgan Wallen.

In his previous role, Donehower served as Senior Vice President, A&R at Republic Records where he worked on the deal to bring Jelly Roll to the label in partnership with BMG and Broken Bow Records.

He also led A&R on Jelly Roll‘s latest album, Beautifully Broken, which debuted at No.1 on the Billboard 200.

Prior to this, Donehower worked in A&R at Columbia Records where he signed artists such as Lil Nas X, Russ, Koe Wetzel, and Quinn XCII.

Big Loud partner and CEO Seth England commented on Donehower’s appointment: “Wes has an exceptional track record of discovering and signing game-changing talent, and he’s firmly established himself as one of the industry’s top A&R executives.”

“Wes has firmly established himself as one of the industry’s top A&R executives.”

Seth England, Big Loud

Added England: “I respect his work ethic, his creative instincts, and the impact he makes on the culture.

“We’re honored to welcome him into the Big Loud family through our partnership with Mercury.”

Mercury Records Chairman and CEO Tyler Arnold, said: “Wes is an incredible A&R executive who has an innate ability to work across every genre.

“He has great instincts, but more impressively has a gift of building long lasting and genuine relationships with artists.

“We’ve shared a lot of great moments already, and I’m so excited to team up with Wes for many years to come.”

“He has great instincts, but more impressively has a gift of building long lasting and genuine relationships with artists.”

Tyler Arnold, Mercury Records

Commenting on his new role, Donehower said: “Tyler and Seth have set a standard for our business with their dynamic and artist centric approach.

“It’s a privilege to work with both the Mercury and Big Loud teams.

“It’s a privilege to work with both the Mercury and Big Loud teams.”

Wes Donehower, Big Loud and Mercury Records

“I’m looking forward to continuing to build new relationships in country music while fostering my longstanding partnerships across all genres.”

This appointment is another sign of the strengthening relationship between Big Loud Records and Mercury Records’ parent company, Universal Music Group.

On May 1, Big Loud sold a minority stake in Morgan Wallen’s master recording catalog to Chord Music Partners, in a deal reportedly valued at over $200 million.

Universal Music Group holds a 25.8% stake in Chord Music Partners, via a $240 million investment made in February 2024.Music Business Worldwide

Vladimir Putin has said Iran did not take up Russia’s offer to work together on air defence and said anti-air systems were not covered under the strategic partnership Moscow and Tehran signed in January.

Putin, Russia’s president, said in a televised interview late on Wednesday that the agreement did not cover defence.

“We once proposed to our Iranian friends to work together on anti-air systems, but our partners did not show any great interest,” he said.

“As far as individual supplies are concerned, yes, of course, we made those at the time, but this has nothing to do with the crisis today,” Putin added, without specifying when the offer and past supplies took place.