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5 Exercises on Dry Land to Improve Your Dolphin Kick Speed

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Fast dolphin kicks are the result of great technique, undulation, conditioning, and optimal range of movement.

While the majority of your training to sharpen the fifth stroke happens in the water, whether it’s steadily extending your breakouts, doing resisted kicking, or banging out 25s fast with a monofin, dryland training is a powerful way to build the strength, power, and stability to increase kicking speeds.

Dryland—whether we’re talking core exercises, strength training, or plyometrics—can give you the raw materials to power up your dolphin kick. With a few key exercises, swimmers can train the main muscle groups responsible for powering a fast and snappy UDK.

Here are five of my favorite dryland exercises for developing a crisp, fast underwater dolphin kick.

Jumping Rope

Jumping rope is one of the simplest and most effective dryland exercises for building stronger ankles, and by extension, more reactive, powerful feet in the water. It enhances coordination, balance, and involves similar stretch-shortening cycle muscle actions to those used during the underwater dolphin kick (Trecroci et al., 2015).

Fast dolphin kickers have great plantar flexion. They can point their toes well. This is fairly well understood. But another key component of the ankles in driving dolphin kick performance is ankle strength.

The calves and tibialis anterior muscles are highly active during the dolphin kick—not just in pointing the toes, but also in positioning the feet, turning the forefeet inward, and generating propulsion in both directions of the kick.

Jump rope is beginner-friendly, doesn’t require a lot of equipment ($5-10 rope and you are in business), and will strengthen those ankles and calves for improved dolphin kick performance.

Jump Squats

Jump squats are an explosive form of your standard squat. You get down into a squat position and then jump upward as powerfully as possible. Aside from the more obvious applications of this exercise for swimmers—increased push-off force coming out of the turns, for example—jump squats are great for building dolphin kick power.

A study (Marian et al., 2016) with 68 collegiate men had them do squat jumps three times per week for two months. At the end, they showed big-time improvements in rate of force development (44%), maximal strength (18%) and vertical jump height (10-15%). Sprint (running) times to 50m also improved by 3%.

A fast, powerful dolphin kick means you can generate lots of force through the legs and hips. And jump squats are a no-equipment exercise that can develop the raw power and quick force application needed to dolphin kick harder, faster, and with more precision off every wall and start.

Barbell Hip Thrusts

Hip extension is crucial for fast dolphin kicking, and one of the stars of the show when it comes to making this movement happen is the gluteus maximus. The glutes are especially active at higher dolphin kicking speeds (Yamakawa et al., 2022).

The barbell hip thrust is one of the best exercises for hitting those meat sacks on your backside to improve kick power and speed. A meta-analysis of studies examining the barbell hip thrust done by Neto et al. (2019) demonstrated significantly higher levels of glute activation compared squats and deadlifts.

This exercise is also a horizontal movement, which more closely matches the mechanics of underwater dolphin kicking. Pair it with broad jumps to power up your start, too.

Kettlebell swings

Sticking with hip extension, we’ve got kettlebell swings. The explosive hip extension with each swings directly mirrors the downward thrust of the kick, building some crispy, snapping power for high-velocity underwaters.

In a study by Lake & Lauder (2012), a six-week kettlebell swing intervention saw athletes increase vertical jump height by 20%. Maximal strength also increased (12%) on half squats even though the kettlebell load was relatively light.

Kettlebell swings strengthen the entire posterior chain, including the erector spinae and glutes, which again are busy when dolphin kicking at top speeds in the pool.

Swimmers looking to power up their dolphin kick without a squat rack or gym membership can turn to kettlebell swings for a simple, time-efficient option for a  booming kick.

Dead bugs with overhead reach

A strong, stable core is essential for fast underwater dolphin kicking. From controlling the oscillation of the trunk to rapidly switching between kicking directions, the core is highly active in helping us kick smoothly and quickly.

While there are countless core exercises for swimmers, I really like Dead Bugs to improve stability and control of the thoracic spine. This part of the spine is fundamental to creating undulation, that smooth body-wave that ripples down the body and explodes out the toes, creating hurricane-force vortices and lots of water displacement.

Lay on your back with hips and knees bent at 90 degrees, arms reaching toward the ceiling. As one leg extends toward the floor, the opposite arm reaches overhead, typically with light resistance (like a resistance band).

A study comparing different core exercises (Shojaei et al., 2021) found that the exercise fires the deep stabilizers like crazy (transverse abdominis and internal obliques), essential for body control and transferring force during the dolphin kick.

The Bottom Line

Building a smoother and quicker dolphin kick takes a lot of work. The timing and coordination can be tough to master and there is the respiratory component of exerting yourself underwater.

By using the right dryland exercises, swimmers can build a dolphin kick on the back of snappy hip extension, a stable core and pelvis, and more resilient feet.

Consider adding the above exercises to your dryland workouts and watch as your kick speed, distance per kick, and times take flight.

Happy kicking!


Level Up Your Underwater Dolphin Kick

Olivier Poirier-Leroy is a former national-level swimmer, 2x Olympic Trials qualifier, and author of several books for swimmers, including The Dolphin Kick Manual: The Swimmer’s Ultimate Guide to a Fast Underwater Dolphin Kick.

The book is a beastly 240+ pages of actionable insights and research into elite dolphin kicking technique and performance. It details everything from mastering undulation to vortex recapturing to structuring a dryland program for dolphin kicking success.

The Dolphin Kick Manual combines evidence-based insights with a collection of 20 ready-to-go sets and a 6-week Action Plan to help swimmers set a course for dolphin kicking success.

Train smarter and kick faster.

👉👉👉 Learn more about The Dolphin Kick Manual

 

 

 

Commander reports Ukraine maintains control in Russia’s Kursk region

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Thomas Mackintosh

BBC News

Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images A Ukrainian serviceman looks through the scope of a rifle on September 11, 2024 in Sudzha, Kursk Region, Russia. Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images

A Ukrainian serviceman looks through the scope of a rifle shortly after the incursion into Kursk

Ukraine’s top military commander says its forces are still defending a small area of territory inside Russia that it captured almost a year ago.

In August 2024 Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into the Kursk region, capturing more than 1,000 sq km (386 sq miles) of Russian land.

Ukraine’s commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky said 10,000 Russian troops are attempting to drive his forces back.

While Russia has repeatedly insisted it had recaptured the entire region, Syrsky said on Sunday that Ukraine is still holding around 90 sq km (56 sq miles) in the Kursk region.

Speaking to reporters on Sunday, Syrsky vowed to increase the “scale and depth” of strikes on Russia.

“Of course, we will continue,” he said.

“Given that we are not fighting against the population, we are fighting and destroying purely military targets.”

Ukraine seized dozens of villages in the Kursk region shortly after its incursion started on 6 August 2024.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said the Kursk operation established a buffer zone which prevented Russian forces from being deployed in key areas of the front in eastern Ukraine.

But, Kyiv’s advances stalled after Russia rushed reinforcements to the area – including thousands of troops from its ally North Korea.

In recent months Ukrainian forces have been in retreat in Kursk after facing 70,000 Russian troops and heavy drone attacks as part of Moscow’s drive to regain the territory.

Last autumn, North Korea sent an estimated 11,000 troops to Kursk to fight off the Ukrainian cross-border incursion.

Western officials told the BBC in January that at least 1,000 North Korean troops in Russia had been killed in just three months.

Earlier this month, the government in Pyongyang promised to send thousands of mine-clearing troops and builders to Russia’s Kursk region to restore damaged infrastructure.

The Nireeka Spectrx Ebike Can Reach an Exciting Top Speed of 50 mph

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Dubai-based Nireeka has been making absolutely outrageous ebikes for a few years now, and its latest performance-focused creation packs so much power it really should come with a statutory warning or three.

The Spectrx features a 6-kW mid-drive motor that puts down 206 lb.ft (280 Nm) of torque, mated to a distinctive lightweight carbon fiber frame. The company says this combination allows for a thrilling top speed of 50 mph (80 km/h), making it the quickest ebike in Nireeka’s history – though it’s not the fastest ebike we’ve seen.

The monocoque frame, with its angular design, helps keep the bike’s overall weight down to just 66 lb (30 kg) on the Plus variant; the Fat version with 26 x 4 inch tires comes in at 79 lb (36 kg) – these are just a bit more than the brand’s other models that make 1/6th the power.

Introducing the Nireeka Spectrx.

The Spectrx gets a 1,260-Wh battery pack with Samsung cells and a smart battery management system to prevent overcharging and overheating. Nireeka says you can expect a range of 31-75 miles (50-120 km) on a single charge depending on your riding style and terrain, and it should last years without a decline in performance.

There’s also a whole lot of solid equipment on board: Tektro ABS disc brakes, torque and cadence sensors for a natural-feeling pedal assist, 140-mm travel and rebound-adjustable front and rear suspension, Kenda tires, a high-powered headlight, and a color display on the dashboard with app connectivity to track ride metrics.

The carbon fiber monocoque frame helps keep the weight down, and that’s key to the 6-kW motor getting you up to 50 mph

Nireeka

Nireeka is currently crowdfunding the Spectrx over on Indiegogo, where you can place an order for a deep discount on both versions, and choose from two sizes and six colors. The Spectrx Plus, which is set to retail at US$4,799, can be had for $3,099; the $4,999 Spectrx Fat is marked down to $3,299. These bikes are expected to ship in October if all goes to plan, and shipping to any of the 65+ countries on Nireeka’s list will cost roughly $299 over and above your order amount.

The discounted prices are certainly compelling. Heybike’s Hero from last year that does 35 mph currently costs about $2,600, and that makes Nireeka’s pricier ask for a lot more grunt seem reasonable.

The 240 x 60-mm DNM rear shock is neatly integrated into the frame, while its rebound knob is fitted to be easy to reach and adjust
The 240 x 60-mm DNM rear shock is neatly integrated into the frame, while its rebound knob is fitted to be easy to reach and adjust

Nireeka

You can upgrade the brakes and drivetrain, opt for a pricier fast charger, and even get a bunch of accessories including a range extender and turn signals.

Crowdfunding campaigns always carry an element of risk, but for what it’s worth, Nireeka’s been around since 2018 and we’ve liked the bikes we’ve reviewed from the brand over the years.

Learn more about the Spectrx over on Indiegogo.

United States launches airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities

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Donald Trump said the US struck three nuclear sites in Iran, joining Israel’s attacks on the country and drawing America into another war in the Middle East.

The president said US planes dropped bombs on Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan in an effort to disable the Islamic republic’s nuclear enrichment capability and set back its alleged pursuit of an atomic weapon.

“Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated,” Trump said in a late-night address to the nation.

Trump said Iran now needed to “make peace” and threatened more intense attacks on the Islamic republic if it did not.

“Future attacks would be far greater and a lot easier,” Trump said.

“This cannot continue. There will be either peace or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days. Remember, there are many targets left.”

Trump’s decision to strike Iran escalates the conflict in the Middle East, which has been in turmoil since Hamas’s attack on Israel in 2023. It comes just over a week after Israel launched missiles at Iran and Tehran hit back by striking targets in Israel.

The attack brings the risk of Iranian retaliation against the US, especially on military bases and ships in the region, along with potential disruption to oil supplies from the world’s most important energy producing region.

Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday that the US had “crossed a very big red line”, adding that Tehran was not currently open to finding a diplomatic solution to the conflict.

“The door for diplomacy should be always kept open,” Araghchi said. “But this is not the case right now.” He added that Iran “reserves all options to defend its sovereignty . . . for as long as necessary”.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu heaped praise on Trump’s “bold decision”, saying the US strikes against Iran would “change history”.

“In tonight’s action against Iran’s nuclear facilities, America has been truly unsurpassed. It has done what no other country on Earth could do,” he said.

But Israeli authorities also took defensive measures, completely shutting down the airspace and putting the home front on “essential” activity, in a sign that Iranian retaliation was expected. Both restrictions had been partially lifted in recent days.

The US attacks mark a major turning point for Trump, who campaigned for his second term on a pledge to be a peacemaker who ended “forever wars”.

It is a political gamble for the president, whose Maga base is divided between hawks and those who believe the US should stay out of foreign conflicts.

Announcing the attacks earlier on Saturday on his Truth Social platform, Trump said the planes had dropped “a full payload of BOMBS” on Fordow, and were all safely on their way home.

Kaja Kallas, the EU’s chief diplomat, responded to the US strikes by affirming that Iran must not develop nuclear arms but urged “all sides” to begin negotiations.

“I urge all sides to step back, return to the negotiating table and prevent further escalation,” she said, adding that the EU’s 27 foreign ministers would discuss the situation at a previously arranged meeting.

European capitals are still waiting for an independent assessment of the impact caused by the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities, two senior officials told the FT, amid uncertainty over the extent of the damage.

One cautioned that it could take some time to assess the true result of the US attack, given the depth of the nuclear facilities and the difficulty in accessing areas that theoretically could have withstood the bombs.

UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer also called on Iran to return to the negotiating table and reach a diplomatic solution to “end this crisis”.

Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the UK had been informed by the US ahead of time of its plans to launch a military attack on Iran, but “no request was made” for the UK to support the action.

American “bunker-buster” bombs carried by the B-2 were considered the best chance of destroying Iran’s uranium enrichment facility at Fordow, which is buried deep under a mountain.

The bombing raid comes after two decades of debate in the US about whether to attack Iran, and seven years after Trump pulled his country out of a nuclear pact with Tehran agreed by President Barack Obama.

Trump said on Saturday that he had discussed the attacks with Netanyahu, who has urged the US to attack Iran’s nuclear sites for years.

“We worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before, and we’ve gone a long way to erasing this horrible threat to Israel,” Trump said.

An adviser to the speaker of Iran’s parliament said Tehran had been anticipating an attack on Fordow.

U.S. President Donald Trump holds a meeting with White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine and other cabinet members in the Situation Room at the White House
Donald Trump holds a meeting with White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff General Dan Caine and other cabinet members in the White House Situation Room © The White House/Reuters

“From Iran’s perspective, nothing too strange has happened,” Mahdi Mohammadi wrote on X.

“For several nights, Iran has been waiting for an attack on Fordow. The site has been evacuated for a while now and has not faced irreversible damage from the attack.”

After initially appearing to distance himself from the conflict, Trump deliberated in recent days over whether to involve the US military in Israel’s effort to dismantle Iran’s nuclear programme.

On Thursday he had appeared to offer Iran a two-week window to reach a diplomatic solution.

Joseph Votel, a retired general who led US Central Command, which oversees American forces in the Middle East, said Trump and his team had engaged in an effort to conceal the timing of the attack, including the president’s two-week timeline.

“It is pretty clear that there has been a deception plan in place,” said Votel who served as Centcom commander for two years of Trump’s first term.

Republican foreign policy hawks in Congress cheered the president’s military move. US senator Lindsey Graham said “this was the right call” while Senator Jim Risch, chair of the influential Senate foreign relations committee, backed Trump’s “decisive action” to assist Israel.

But some critics of the president said he had stepped beyond his constitutional authority.

Additional reporting by Neri Zilber in Tel Aviv

Trump and Netanyahu Commend U.S. Attacks on Iranian Nuclear Facilities

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new video loaded: Trump and Netanyahu Praise U.S. Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites

transcript

transcript

Trump and Netanyahu Praise U.S. Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites

President Trump said the aim of attacking the three facilities was to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability. Iran said the sites had been hit but did not immediately describe the damage.

“Thank you very much. A short time ago, the U.S. military carried out massive precision strikes on the three key nuclear facilities in the Iranian regime: Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. Our objective was the destruction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world’s number one state sponsor of terror. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier.” “America has been truly unsurpassed. It has done what no other country on Earth could do. History will record that President Trump acted to deny the world’s most dangerous regime the world’s most dangerous weapons.” “God bless the Middle East. God bless Israel. And God bless America. Thank you very much. Thank you.”

Recent episodes in News Clips: Middle East

Global response to US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities

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World reaction to US attacks on Iran nuclear sites

India declares it will never reinstate the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan amid rising tensions between the two nations

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New Delhi put into ‘abeyance’ its participation in the 1960 transboundary treaty after 26 people were killed in Indian-administered Kashmir in April.

India will never restore the Indus Waters Treaty with neighbouring Pakistan, and the water flowing there will be diverted for internal use, says federal Home Minister Amit Shah.

India put into “abeyance” its participation in the 1960 treaty, which governs the usage of the Indus River system, after 26 people were killed in Indian-administered Kashmir in April, in what New Delhi described as an act of terror backed by Pakistan.

Pakistan denied involvement in the incident, which led to days of fighting between the two nuclear powers – their worst military escalation in decades, bringing them to the brink of another war.

Despite a ceasefire agreed upon by the two nations last month, Shah said his government would not restore the treaty, which guaranteed water access for 80 percent of Pakistan’s farms through three rivers originating in India.

“It will never be restored,” Shah told The Times of India newspaper in an interview on Saturday.

“We will take water that was flowing to Pakistan to Rajasthan by constructing a canal. Pakistan will be starved of water that it has been getting unjustifiably,” he added, referring to the northwestern Indian desert state.

The transboundary water agreement allows the two countries to share water flowing from the Indus basin, giving India control of three eastern Himalayan rivers – Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas – while Pakistan got control of the three western rivers – Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus.

The treaty also established the India-Pakistan Indus Commission, which is supposed to resolve any problems that arise. So far, it has survived previous armed conflicts and near-constant tensions between India and Pakistan over the past 65 years.

However, the comments from Shah, the most powerful minister in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s cabinet, have dimmed Islamabad’s hopes for negotiations on the treaty in the near term.

Pakistan has not yet responded to Shah’s comments. But it has said in the past that the treaty has no provision for one side to unilaterally pull back, and that any blocking of river water flowing to Pakistan will be considered “an act of war”.

“The treaty can’t be amended, nor can it be terminated by any party unless both agree,” Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said last month.

Islamabad is also exploring a legal challenge to India’s decision to hold the treaty in abeyance under international law.

Legal experts told Al Jazeera in April that the treaty cannot be unilaterally suspended, and that it can only be modified by mutual agreement between the parties.

“India has used the word ‘abeyance’, and there is no such provision to ‘hold it in abeyance’ in the treaty,” Ahmer Bilal Soofi, a Pakistani lawyer, told Al Jazeera. “It also violates customary international laws relating to upper and lower riparian, where the upper riparian cannot stop the water promise for the lower riparian.”

Anuttama Banerji, a political analyst based in New Delhi, told Al Jazeera in April that the treaty might continue, but not in its present form.

“Instead, it will be up for ‘revision’, ‘review’ and ‘modification’ – all three meaning different things – considering newer challenges such as groundwater depletion and climate change were not catered for in the original treaty,” Banerji said.

Expert: Iran’s potential response to U.S. attack on nuclear sites could be like a strategic equivalent of a suicide bombing

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Until now, the fighting had mostly involved Iran and Israel, which launched airstrikes on the Islamic republic last week. President Donald Trump’s decision to send bombers and cruise missiles into Iran dramatically escalates the conflict and moves the U.S. into offensive operations, not just a defensive posture to protect Israel and American troops in the region.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on social media that Iran “reserves all options” in defending itself.

While Trump threatened more attacks unless Iran seeks peace, Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a top Iran expert, said it’s unlikely the country’s leadership will go that route. But its response could also prove to be catastrophic.

“Many of Iran’s retaliatory options are the strategic equivalent of a suicide bombing,” he said in a series of posts on X. “They can strike US embassies and bases, attack oil facilities in the Persian Gulf, mine the Strait of Hormuz, or rain missiles on Israel—but the regime may not survive the blowback.”

Energy markets are poised to suffer a major jolt as investors digest the implications of the U.S. bombing Iran, a top oil exporter.

Crude prices had already surged in the immediate aftermath of Israel’s airstrikes, and could soar even higher, depending on how Iran responds.

In a note last week, George Saravelos, head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, estimated that the worst-case scenario of a complete disruption to Iranian oil supplies and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices above $120 per barrel.

That’s because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical choke point in the global energy trade, as the equivalent of 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption, or about 21 million barrels per day, flows through the narrow waterway.

Iran’s ability to use proxies and allies in the region to retaliate on its behalf has also been severely weakened as earlier Israeli attacks have crippled Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas.

Meanwhile, Sadjadpour noted that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are a substantial force of 190,000 troops, but not monolithic.

“Do they continue to defer to the 86-year-old Khamenei as their commander in chief, though his regional and nuclear ambitions have now ended in colossal failure?” he asked.

Other analysts also warned of the potential for Iran to retaliate by taking Americans as hostages or launching cyberattacks. And Iran-allied Houthi rebels in Yemen said before Saturday that any U.S. attack on Iran would trigger attacks on U.S. vessels in the region.

But retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark, who previously served as the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, told CNN that he doesn’t think Iran will resort to a maximum response like blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

Instead, it may launch some missiles at U.S. bases in the region or direct pro-Tehran militias in Iraq to attack U.S. forces.

“I don’t see a major response,” he predicted. “This Iranian regime calculates. It’s very careful to understand where it wants to go.”

There are about 50,000 U.S. troops in the region, mostly spread out across Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

For now, it’s not clear yet that the U.S. attacks on Iran will prove to be decisive. Sadjadpour noted that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei believes caving in to pressure projects weakness and invites more pressure.

But he also said Khamenei is not a “reckless gambler,” creating tension between his survival instincts and his defiant instincts.

“This is an unprecedented moment in Iranian history,” Sadjadpour added. “It could entrench the regime—or hasten its demise. It could prevent a nuclear Iran—or accelerate one. Military attacks/humiliations have both strengthened dictatorships (Iran 1980) and weakened them (Argentina, Milosevic).”

Trump takes a bold risk by placing US at the center of Iran-Israel conflict

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Anthony Zurcher

North America correspondent

Getty Images Donald Trump in a suit with his hand raised, standing in front of US flagsGetty Images

Donald Trump, the president who returned to the White House in January promising to be a “peacemaker”, has taken a dramatic step to insert the US into the fraught conflict between Iran and Israel.

Far from bringing peace to the Middle East since taking office, Trump is now presiding over a region on the precipice of even greater warfare – a fight in which America is an active participant.

In a televised address to the nation from the White House just over two hours after announcing on social media that American forces had struck three nuclear sites in Iran, the American president said the operation had been a “spectacular success”.

He expressed hope that his move would open the door to a more lasting peace where Iran no longer had the potential to become a nuclear power.

Iran has said that there was only minor damage to its heavily fortified Fordo nuclear site. Time will tell which side is correct.

Flanked by Vice-President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, Trump warned Iran that if they did not abandon their nuclear programme, they would face future attacks that were “far worse and a lot easier”.

There were “many targets left”, Trump said, and the US would go after them with “speed, precision and skill”.

Despite the president’s bravado, a continued American military engagement in Iran may be a worst-case scenario for the US, the region and the world.

UN Secretary General António Guterres warned of a “spiral of chaos” that could result from the American decision to escalate the conflict, noting that the Middle East was already “on edge”.

If Iran retaliates – as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned would happen in the event of a US attack – then the American side may feel compelled to respond.

‘Two weeks’ became two days

Trump’s rhetoric earlier this week that Iran had to “unconditionally surrender” had put the president in a position where it would be difficult for him to back down. Iran, with its own threats, had backed itself into a similar corner.

This is how wars start – and how they can expand beyond the control, and imaginations, of those involved.

On Thursday, Donald Trump gave the Iranians a two-week deadline but that turned out to be much shorter than expected – just two days. On Saturday night, the US president announced he had acted.

Was the two weeks for negotations a feint? A bid to lure the Iranians into a false sense of security this weekend? Or did behind-the-scenes negotiations led by Trump’s designated peacemaker Steve Witkoff collapse?

A map of Iran highlighting three locations bombed by the US: Fordo; Natanz and Isfahan

In the immediate aftermath of the strikes, little is known. But in his social media post and in his televised address, Trump tried to open the door for peace.

That may be an optimistic outlook, however. While the Israelis have made considerable efforts toward degrading Iran’s military capabilities, the ayatollah still has weapons at his disposal.

Things could get messy fast.

Now the waiting game begins. How will Iran respond to attacks on three of its sites, including Fordo, seen as the crown jewel of its nuclear programme?

Trump appears to be hoping the US strikes force Iran to make greater concessions at the negotiating table, but it seems unlikely that a nation unwilling to talk while under Israeli attack will be more inclined when American bombs are also falling.

And while Trump seemed to be implying that the US attack was a singular, successful event, if that’s not the case, then the pressure to strike again will grow – or the president will have taken a serious political risk for minimal military gain.

‘Peacemaker’ president risks political blowback

That risk includes domestic political concerns, along with questions of international security.

The prospect of a US attack on Iran had already prompted sharp criticisms not only from Democrats but also from within Trump’s own “America First” movement.

The president’s unusual decision to give his national address flanked by three of his closer advisors may have been an attempt to project unity within his party.

Vance, in particular, has been an outspoken advocate of a more restrained American foreign policy and, recently, had taken to social media to make the case that Trump is still a non-interventionist who should be given the benefit of the doubt by his supporters.

If this attack is a one-off event, Trump may be able to smooth over the divisions within his base. But if it pulls the US into a larger conflict, the president could have an uprising with his ranks.

Saturday’s attack was an aggressive move for a president who boasted of starting no new wars during his first presidential term and who regularly railed against predecessors who had drawn the country into foreign conflicts on the campaign trail last year.

Trump has made his move. Where it goes from here is not entirely within his control.

UK Government’s £1bn pledge to boost job support for disabled individuals remains unfunded

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The UK government’s promise of an extra £1bn to help disabled people into work is not matched by new money from the Treasury, casting doubt on ministers’ ability to deliver divisive welfare reforms while still tackling other priorities such as youth unemployment. 

Ministers have framed unpopular cuts to sickness and disability benefits as a “moral mission” to help people into fulfilling work rather than consigning them to a life on benefits. 

They say that by 2029-30, there will be £1bn of new funding per year to guarantee support for all benefits claimants with a health condition who want help to enter or return to work. 

But just £400mn of this will come on stream by 2028-29 — the last year covered by departmental budgets set out in the Spending Review earlier this month. Spending is then supposed to jump to reach the promised £1bn in the final year of the parliament.

“Our goal is to combine this new investment with existing capacity to establish a big, clear and simple offer of work, health and skills support to disabled people and people with a health condition,” the Department for Work and Pensions said in its impact assessment of the government’s welfare reforms, published last week. 

But DWP’s overall budget for the day-to-day running of the welfare system will rise just 0.4 per cent a year in real terms in the three years in which it aims to roll out this extra support — and will not grow at all on a per capita basis after factoring in growth in the UK population.

“The revolution in employment support . . . promised to sweeten sharp disability benefit cuts will now have to be funded out of essentially frozen day-to-day per person budgets,” analysts at the Resolution Foundation think-tank noted.

On Thursday, Vicky Foxcroft MP resigned as a Labour whip in protest against the government’s plans to cut disability benefits. She said tackling the rising welfare bill “could and should be done by supporting more disabled people into work” rather than cutting benefits.

More than 100 Labour MPs have expressed concerns about the reforms, although it is not clear how many will vote against the bill next month.

DWP has not yet set out what form its new job support will take. By the autumn, it hopes to persuade the Office for Budget Responsibility that the new support will lead to big gains in employment, yielding billions in welfare savings and wider benefits to society. 

OBR officials are sceptical about the potential for big pay-offs from back to work programmes and said in March they could not cost the proposals without more detail. 

“Past experience is that it is quite difficult to get really big results from employment support programmes,” Tom Josephs, a member of the OBR’s budget responsibility committee, told MPs earlier this year.

Meanwhile analysts say the commitment to extra support for those with health conditions will limit DWP’s ability to tackle other priorities — in particular its “Youth Guarantee” of help for 18 to 21-year-olds to access apprenticeships, training and job support. 

“I do think other things are going to get squeezed,” said Stephen Evans, chief executive at the Learning & Work Institute think-tank, adding that support for the long-term unemployed and funding for the Youth Guarantee could be at risk.

The DWP declined to say whether other services would be cut in order to meet the £1bn commitment. It said efficiency gains would allow it to “prioritise funding towards employment support”. 

The department currently spends £275mn a year on job support for the sick and disabled. A £1bn increase would consume a tenth of its overall day-to-day spending on service delivery and almost a third of its spending on employment support — which is set to rise to £3.5bn by 2028-29. 

DWP declined to say how much it spends on employment support at present, or whether support for other groups would be cut in order to meet the £1bn commitment. It said efficiency gains would allow it to “prioritise funding towards employment support” and that eight local pilots of the Youth Guarantee, funded with £45mn in their first year, would continue.

The DWP said it was “determined to create a welfare system that supports people into work and out of poverty”.