As United States President Donald Trump blasts his way through tariff announcements, one thing is clear, experts say: Some level of duties is here to stay.

In the past few weeks, Trump has announced a string of deals – with the European Union, Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines – with tariffs ranging from 15 percent to 20 percent.

He has also threatened Brazil with a 50 percent tariff, unveiled duties of 30 percent and 35 percent for major trading partners Mexico and Canada, and indicated that deals with China and India are close.

How many of Trump’s tariff rates will shake out is anybody’s guess, but one thing is clear, according to Vina Nadjibulla, vice president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada: “No one is getting zero tariffs. There’s no going back.”

Trump’s various announcements have spelled months of chaos for industry, leaving businesses in limbo and forcing them to pause investment and hiring decisions.

The World Bank has slashed its growth forecasts for nearly 70 percent of economies – including the US, China and Europe, and six emerging market regions – and cut its global growth estimate to 2.3 percent, down from 2.7 percent in January.

Oxford Economics has forecast a shallow recession in capital spending in the Group of Seven (G7) countries – Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the US – lasting from the second quarter to the third quarter of this year.

“What we’re seeing is the Donald Trump business style: There’s lots of commotion, lots of claim, lots of activity and lots of b*******,” Robert Rogowsky, professor of international trade at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, told Al Jazeera.

“That’s his business model, and that’s how he operates. That’s why he’s driven so many of his businesses into bankruptcy. It’s not strategic or tactical. It’s instinctive.”

Rogowsky said he expects Trump to push back his tariff deadline again, after delaying it from April to July, and then to August 1.

“It’s going to be a series of TACO tariffs,” Rogowsky said, referring to the acronym for “Trump Always Chickens Out”, a phrase coined by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong in early May to describe the US president’s backpedalling on tariffs in the face of stock market turmoil.

“He will bump them again,” Rogowsky said. “He’s just exerting the image of power.”

Trump’s back-and-forth policy moves have characterised his dealings with some of the US’s biggest trade partners, including China and the EU.

China’s tariff rate has gone from 20 percent to 54 percent, to 104 percent, to 145 percent, and then 30 percent, while the deadline for implementation has shifted repeatedly.

The proposed tariff rates for the EU have followed a similar pattern, going from 20 percent to 50 percent to 30 percent, and then 15 percent following the latest trade deal.

The EU’s current tariff rate only applies to 70 percent of goods, with a zero rate applying to a limited range of exports, including semiconductor equipment and some chemicals.

European steel exports will continue to be taxed at 50 percent, and Trump has indicated that new tariffs could be on the way for pharmaceutical products.

Despite the trade deals, many details of how Trump’s tariffs will work in practice remain unclear.

Whether Trump announces more changes down the track, analysts agree that the world has entered a new phase in which countries are seeking to become less reliant on the US.

“Now that the initial shock and anger [at Trump policies] has subsided, there is a quiet determination to build resilience and become less reliant on the US,” Nadjibulla said, adding that Trump was pushing countries to address longstanding issues that had been untouchable before.

Canada, for instance, is tackling inter-provincial trade barriers, a politically sensitive issue historically, even as it looks elsewhere to increase exports, said Tony Stillo, director of Canada Economics at Oxford Economics.

“It would be foolhardy not to provide to the US, seeing as it’s our largest market, but it also makes us more resilient to provide to other markets as well,” Stillo told Al Jazeera.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has reached out to the EU and Mexico and indicated his wish to improve his country’s strained relations with China and India.

This month, Canada expanded its exports of liquified natural gas beyond the US market, with its first shipment of cargoes to Asia.

To mitigate the fallout of Trump’s tariffs, Ottawa has been offering relief to Canadian businesses, including automakers, and has instituted a six-month pause on tariffs on some imports from the US to give firms time to re-adjust their supply chains.

There is also “some relief” in the fact that other countries “don’t seem to be imitating the Trump show [by levying their own tariffs]. They’re witnessing this attempt to strong-arm the rest of the world, but it doesn’t seem to be working,” Mary Lovely, the Anthony M Solomon senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), told Al Jazeera.

But the world is watching how the tariffs will affect the US economy, as “that will also be instructive to other countries”, Lovely said.

“If we see a slowdown, as we expect, it becomes a cautionary tale for others.”

Although the US stock market is near an all-time high, it is heavily weighted towards the “magnificent seven”, said Lovely, referring to the largest tech companies, and that reflects just one part of the economy.

Re-emergence of industrial policy

Trump’s tariffs come on top of other growing challenges for exporters the world over, including China’s subsidy-heavy industrial policy that allows its businesses to undercut its competitors.

“We’ve entered a period of global economic alignment with the reintroduction of industrial policies,” Nadjibulla said, explaining that more and more governments are likely to roll out support for their domestic industries.

“Each country will have to navigate these and find ways to de-risk and reduce overreliance on the US and China.”

Still, countries seeking to support their homegrown industries will have to do so while reckoning with the World Trade Organization and rules-based trade agreements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, Nadjibulla said.

“It will take some tremendous leadership around the world to corral this wild mustang [Trump] before he breaks up the world order,” Rogowsky said.

“But it will break because I do think Donald Trump will drive us into a recession.”

A UN mission says 43 worshippers were killed in the attack at a night mass in a church.

The armed group ISIL (ISIS) has claimed responsibility for a deadly attack that a United Nations mission says killed at least 43 worshippers during a night mass at a church in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

The attack, which took place at the church in Ituri province’s Komanda city, saw members of the ISIL-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) killing people with guns and machetes, and taking captives.

ISIL said on its Telegram channel that rebels had killed some 45 churchgoers and burned dozens of homes and shops.

The UN mission known as MONUSCO said at least 43 people had been killed, including 19 women and nine children, and condemned the attack.

Pope Leo sent a message of condolences to the bereaved families and the Christian community who lost their relatives and friends in the assault, saying he would pray for them.

The Congolese government condemned the church attack as “horrific”, while the military described it as a “large-scale massacre” carried out in revenge for recent security operations targeting the ADF.

However, M23, another Congolese rebel group, backed by Rwanda, used the attack to accuse the government of “blatant incompetence” in attempts to protect citizens.

MONUSCO said the church killings will “exacerbate an already extremely worrying humanitarian situation in the province”.

The church attack on Sunday was the latest in a series of deadly ADF assaults on civilians, including an attack earlier this month when the group killed 66 people in Ituri province.

The attack happened on July 11, at about 1am (00:00 GMT) in the Irumu area, near the border with Uganda.

The ADF originates in neighbouring Uganda, but is now based in the mineral-rich eastern DRC. It mounts frequent attacks, further destabilising a region where many armed groups compete for influence and resources.

The ADF was formed by disparate small groups in Uganda in the late 1990s following alleged discontent with President Yoweri Museveni.

In 2002, following military assaults by Ugandan forces, the group moved its activities to the neighbouring DRC and has since been responsible for the killings of thousands of civilians. In 2019, it pledged allegiance to ISIL.

The ADF’s leadership says it is fighting to form a government in the East African country.

The DRC army has long struggled against the rebel group, and it is now also grappling with a complex web of attacks since renewed hostilities with the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels.

Leaders from Europe’s two largest economies have led a chorus of gloomy reactions to the trade deal struck between EU chief Ursula von der Leyen and US President Donald Trump.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the agreement would “substantially damage” his nation’s finances, while French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou said it was tantamount to “submission”.

The reaction has been downbeat across the bloc – though several capitals acknowledged signing an uneven deal was worth it in order to avert an all-out trade war.

It will see a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the US – half the rate threatened by Trump – in return for Europe buying more American energy and slashing taxes on some imports.

Following private talks at Trump’s Turnberry golf course in Scotland, von der Leyen described the agreement as a “huge deal”, while Trump said it would bring the US and EU “closer together”.

The deal will require the approval of all 27 members of the EU, each of which has differing interests and levels of reliance on the export of goods to the US.

While no member state indicated it intended to block it from coming into force, there was little celebration among European leaders.

Merz warned that the economies of the US and European would both be negatively impacted, but also said the Brussels negotiating team “couldn’t expect to achieve any more” against a US president determined to rebalance relationships with major trading partners.

Bayrou was more damning, writing on X: “It is a dark day when an alliance of free peoples, brought together to affirm their common values and to defend their common interests, resigns itself to submission.”

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a close ally of Trump, said the US president “ate von der Leyen for breakfast”.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said he would support it “without any enthusiasm”.

In the weeks building up the final EU-US talks there had been a growing appetite among some European leaders to ramp up the pressure on Trump by using so-called anti-coercion measures, which would have blocked US firms access to European markets.

But with 30% tariffs looming, the EU struck a deal on behalf of its members – one which will still inflict an economic blow, but a less severe one that had been feared when Trump originally threatened import taxes.

Von der Leyen had sought to present it as a success on Sunday – but by Monday, even the leader of her European People’s Party, Manfred Weber, described it as “damage control”.

While the broad outline of the deal has been agreed, its details will be finalised after technical talks – and despite the scepticism of some, there was also widespread relief in Europe.

Finland’s prime minister said it would provide “much-needed predictability”, while Irish Trade Minister Simon Harris said it brought the certainty “essential for jobs, growth and investment”.

Defending its terms at a press conference on Monday, the EU’s trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic said it was the “best deal we could get under very difficult circumstances”.

He also pointed to the security implications of maintaining cordial trade relations with the US in the context of the Ukraine war.

Ensuring that Europe and the US were “aligned on the geopolitical issues of today”, he said, came with “an additional price”.