EXPLAINER
Al Jazeera breaks down the qualification scenarios for all four teams before the Asia Cup final in Dubai on Sunday.
Published On 24 Sep 2025
Pakistan’s five-wicket win over Sri Lanka in the Asia Cup 2025 has ensured that all teams in the Super Fours round of the regional cricket tournament have a chance of qualifying for the final.
While Bangladesh, India and Pakistan still have their fate in their own hands, Sri Lanka are hanging on with a hope and a prayer that three matches go their way, including two that do not involve them.
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How, then, can each of the four teams qualify for the final? Al Jazeera breaks it down as it stands before the Bangladesh vs India match:
How can Bangladesh qualify for the Asia Cup final?
The Tigers began the Super Fours with a roar as they held their nerve to beat Sri Lanka by four wickets in a last-over finish on Saturday.
The win brought them two points and a net run rate (NRR) of 0.121, which keeps them in the mix as the three best-placed teams for the final.
A win over India in their match on Wednesday will further strengthen Bangladesh’s chances of qualifying for the final, but they will not be guaranteed a spot until Friday, when it could all come down to NRR calculations.
However, should they lose to India, Litton Das’s team will play a virtual semifinal against Pakistan on Thursday, with the winners progressing to meet India in the final.
How can India qualify for the Asia Cup final?
India are the only unbeaten side in the tournament and have the strongest position in the Super Fours stage after beating Pakistan comprehensively on Sunday.
Their NRR stands at 0.689, helping the Twenty20 world champions maintain the top spot on the Super Fours points table.
If India beat Bangladesh on Wednesday, they will qualify for the final and will await the winners of the match between Bangladesh and Pakistan.
How can Pakistan qualify for the Asia Cup final?
Pakistan have, as they often do, made a late recovery in the tournament by defeating Sri Lanka in their second Super Fours game.
They are now second on the table with two points and an NRR of 0.226, ahead of Bangladesh, whom they meet in their last Super Fours game.
Pakistan will back India to beat the Tigers on Wednesday, and then aim to do the same a day later to meet their archrivals in the September 28 final.
How can Sri Lanka qualify for the Asia Cup final?
The six-time champions find themselves in a precarious position.
They must wait and pray for the results in the Bangladesh vs India and Bangladesh vs Pakistan fixtures to go their way before having the agency to shape their chances for the final.
For Sri Lanka to have any odds, Bangladesh must beat both India and Pakistan with big margins. Such a scenario would result in two points each for India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
The islanders would then need to record a mammoth win against Bangladesh in the last Super Fours game on Friday.
If the Lions’ stars align and they manage to win by a massive margin, Sri Lanka could knock out the two South Asian giants on the basis of lower NRR and set up a final clash against Bangladesh.
Simply put, if India beat Bangladesh, it is all over for Sri Lanka.
