As Israel prepares more waves of attacks on Iran that Donald Trump warned would be “even more brutal”, the Islamic Republic’s leaders have vowed to retaliate.

Major General Mohammad Pakpour, Iran’s commander of the Revolutionary Guards, who took office on Friday hours after the assassination of his predecessor, vowed to “open the doors of hell”.

But what can Iran do to significantly deter Israel? Tehran — strangled by years of sanctions, and with its main Shia proxies in the region severely weakened — stands in what it sees as an existential battle against a regional power buoyed by the latest western military kit and ample US support.

“The Iranians will struggle to muster a meaningful response,” said Dan Shapiro, former deputy assistant secretary of defence for the Middle East at the Pentagon.

Iran’s first salvo of drones was successfully intercepted. On Friday night Iran launched dozens of ballistic missiles, some of which penetrated Israel’s defences to hit buildings in urban areas. Scores were injured and some killed.

The bulk of the missiles were intercepted and the barrages were on a smaller scale than two Iranian retaliatory assaults last year in terms of numbers. But it appeared that Iran had shifted its tactics, launching in successive waves throughout the night and early morning, primarily targeting Tel Aviv, making them more destructive.

Rather than alter the calculus of the conflict, or deter further strikes, the assault prompted Israel to promise further escalation.

“The real dilemma for Iran will be whether to sprint to a nuclear breakout,” said Shapiro, who is also a former US ambassador to Israel. “They may calculate that will give them the deterrence to ensure regime survival — but that also runs the risk of drawing in the US.”

UN inspectors for years have diligently sought to monitor Iran’s nuclear programme and in particular its enrichment of uranium, which can produce both fuel and weapons-grade material. Iran has in recent years expanded its stockpile of near weapons-grade enriched uranium.

It has the capacity to produce sufficient fissile material for a nuclear weapon in less than two weeks, experts say.

The monitoring efforts make it unlikely — but not impossible — that Iran has already secreted away enough fissile material for a single, simple bomb, which would require less than 15kg of enriched uranium. Putting the uranium on a warhead and developing missile capacity are further challenges, but with enough fissile material, Tehran could in theory fashion a so-called “dirty bomb”.

Such drastic steps would have parallels with Israel’s own development of a secret nuclear arsenal, a “doomsday operation”, which evolved into the nuclear doctrine nicknamed the Samson Option.

During the 1967 war, Israeli officials had authorised a plan of last resort to detonate a hastily assembled nuclear device in the Sinai desert, with the aim of freezing the conflict before Arab armies crossed Israeli borders. (In the event, Israel won the war — the plan became public only in 2001.)

Other options are more traditional: attacking Israeli military facilities and diplomatic missions, or carrying out the threat, voiced by some commanders, of hitting US military targets in the Middle East.

Iranian forces could also turn to asymmetric warfare, attempting to shut off or disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway separating Iran from the Gulf states, through which almost a third of all global seaborne oil exports flow.

Each carries great risks for Iran, including the potential for spectacular failure or further escalation, with the US stepping in substantially to aid Israel, said a former Israeli official who worked on similar assessments in the past.

Analysts and people familiar with Israel’s defence plans expect Iran to continue to try to overwhelm Israel’s multi-layered aerial defences with a massive wave of drones and missiles. Such attacks could target Israeli nuclear facilities, air bases and other critical infrastructure, such as ports and the airport in Tel Aviv.

That would force Israel to ration its limited supply of interceptor missiles, many of which have had to be replenished on an urgent basis after 20 months of war with Hamas in Gaza, Hizbollah in Lebanon and two barrages from Iran in April and October 2024.

Iran’s barrage on Friday and those two earlier assaults showed Iran’s best missiles could pierce Israeli air defences, even when they were bolstered by an emergency deployment of US and other warplanes intercepting missiles and drones far from Israeli airspace.

Some two dozen missiles landed inside the Nevatim Air Base in southern Israel, satellite images later showed. One landed near the Mossad headquarters in north Tel Aviv. Others hit a second air base.

But two people familiar with that assault said it had also shown the limits of Iran’s capabilities. The damage to the air bases was quickly repaired, no aircraft were damaged and Israeli radar operators trained their algorithms on reams of data gathered during the attack.

An Iranian missile barrage fired at Israel in October was the first time the country’s air defences were so thoroughly tested by a regional power, instead of Hamas’s rockets, which are easily intercepted by the Iron Dome system. But that assault was telegraphed at a time when Iran was seeking to avoid the full-blown conflict with Israel in which it now finds itself. And in both of last year’s attacks Tehran targeted military sites, while this time the targets are broader and across multiple cities and towns.

One of Iran’s goals last year, according to an analysis carried out after the event by Israel’s military intelligence directorate, was to see how successfully a “rapid saturation event” could overwhelm Israel’s defensive systems.

Israel’s military doctrine on rationing interceptors — how many it has at any time is a national secret — takes into account the nature of the attack and the target.

If running low on the missiles, protecting military targets is considered more important, in order to protect the ability to counter-attack, for instance. Fox News on Friday reported the US had replenished a significant amount of the Tamir interceptors Israel used, which are partially manufactured in the US.

Another factor has also constrained Iran: the disruption from the first wave of Israeli strikes, according to Israel. The Israeli Air Force on Friday night hit Iran’s surface-to-surface missile arrays, it said, aiming to blunt any possible counter-attack.

Sima Shine, a former official at Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency who had a focus on Iran, said that would have affected the scale at which Iran would be able to mount an immediate counter-attack.

Iran also needed to take time to take stock after the assassination of senior Iranian officials responsible for military strategy. The military officers were “very vital, very knowledgeable, and had been in their jobs for many years”, she said.

Destroying missile systems is not as complicated as destroying Iran’s underground nuclear facilities, said a former air force pilot who had been trained for similar missions about a decade ago.

“Missile systems require very complex mechanisms to work together,” he said. “To disable the system, you don’t have to destroy it, only hitting a single [crucial] component is enough — the radar, the transport system, even the mechanical systems that position the missile.”

Knowing their location is significantly more useful than the kind of armaments used, he said.

The Israeli air force is expected to make repeated bombing runs in the coming days, and has been destroying Iran’s aerial defences — some of them made locally, others procured from allies such as Russia — to maintain aerial superiority.

That would force Iran to allocate its limited missile systems defensively, said the former pilot, instead of using them to punish Israel.

“It is clear now that our [pilots] can strike at will in Iran,” he said. “This was not always true, and it changes the equation completely.”

Graphic illustrations by Ian Bott and Steven Bernard

Rob Stringer, the Chairman of Sony Music Group and CEO of Sony Music Entertainment, updated investors on the music company’s performance and strategy on Friday morning (June 13).

Delivered as part of Sony Group’s 2025 Business Segment Presentation for investors, Stringer covered Sony’s financial performance, catalog deals, distribution strategy, AI opportunities, music streaming subscription prices, and more. He also took part in a fireside chat with Justin Hill, Senior Vice President, Finance & Investor Relations, Sony Corporation of America.

“I will paint a vivid picture of how positive we are whilst achieving groundbreaking results,” Stringer told investors at the start of the presentation. “There is a dramatic amount of change in our industry happening, but we are well-placed to win.”

Stringer highlighted Sony’s creative and commercial successes, from Beyonce’s album of the year win at the Grammys, to Tyler the Creator, Tate McRae and Future No.1 albums.

He also gave shout-outs to superstar Latin Music artist Bad Bunny and songwriter Edgar Barrera, plus Sony Music Publishing-signed Chappell Roan and Charli XCX, who Stringer said, “became cultural icons through their hugely successful albums”.

According to Stringer, “this artistic progression is fueled by our desire to cultivate our rosters through more signings and acquisitions.”

And it was on that point about M&A, that Stringer revealed Sony “completed more than 60 investments in the past year alone” and spent “over $2.5 billion for frontline, catalog, as well as creative and service ventures with outside entrepreneurs across a vast number of territories.”

Stringer discussed Sony’s strategy in greater detail during the presentation and Q&A. Here are seven more things you should know…

1. Sony does not base its acquisition decisions on ‘random financial speculative tactics’

During the presentation, Stringer took aim at what he referred to as “periphery music and financial players”.

He noted that Sony’s acquisitions of catalogs of iconic artists like Queen and Pink Floyd “are based on significant inside track expertise on the history and therefore possibility of these artistic treasure chests”.

He added: “They are in no way based on random financial speculative tactics that periphery music and financial players may choose to employ. This is our lifeblood, and we are best placed to proceed boldly but wisely in developing this strategy.”

Addressing the Queen and Pink Floyd deals specifically, Stringer said: “You have read in recent months that we have purchased the recorded music of Queen and Pink Floyd and the publishing rights for the incredible library of songs for Queen, as well as the name, image and likeness rights which will present huge new promising revenue channels to us.”

Beyond the Pink Floyd and Queen deals, Stringer’s presentation also highlighted other “select investments” from Sony Music Group, listing logos for various labels, distro and merch companies, including:

2. Sony Music continues to be bullish on high-growth emerging markets

Next, Stringer turned his attention to Sony Music’s expansion in high-growth markets across Latin America, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.

“In our central local companies, we have forged new ventures in the Czech Republic, Greece,  Saudi Arabia, and all across Southeast Asia,” said Stringer.

He added: “Our appetite for this is endless in its potential.”

Stringer also told investors that “in the high-growth markets of Latin America, Asia, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East, all of which have bloomed at double-digit rates in the last three years’ growth, we have been vigorously targeting ways to better position Sony Music”. 

According to Stringer: “In India and Latin America, we are still number one in recorded music.”

As you can see from the slide above, in the Latin American music space, Sony highlighted its recent partnership with Mexican American label Rancho Humilde.

In Europe, Sony pointed to its acquisition of Greece’s Cobalt Music and Supraphon, one of the Czech Republic’s longest-established record companies.

Also in Europe, Sony highlighted catalog acquisitions from Poland’s Catmood Records and superstar Polish-language rapper Tymek.

Meanwhile, in Africa and the Middle East, Sony highlighted its recent partnership with Saudi Arabia’s LuxuryKSA, and its acquisition of the recorded music catalog of Egyptian superstar artist Amr Diab.

For Asia, Sony highlighted its joint venture with a prominent Indian film production house Tiger Baby and other partnerships.

3. Sony is benefiting from older consumers’ adoption of streaming and consumption of catalog music

During the presentation, Stringer highlighted the rising opportunity in catalog music as streaming reaches the mainstream and is adopted by greater numbers of older consumers.

 He noted that “in 2020, 24% of the Top 200 tracks were catalog songs,” while “in 2024, that percentage grew to about 50%”.

Stringer explained that “this trend is extremely beneficial to Sony Music given our rich, deep working content”.

He added: “We are of course perfectly placed to understand the data from this activity, and this has stimulated our desire to purchase full bodies of work of labels and iconic artists.”

Sringer discussed this consumption shift in more detail, noting that “as the streaming age matures, similarly the consumer does the same”.

He added: “A young lean-forward contemporary music fan of 2015 may well now be more of a lean-back one in 2025, listening to hits from a decade ago. 

“The wider diversity in offerings of digital providers from full-length clips to short visual clips has also allowed our library to be consumed in a plethora of ways, which is one of the key reasons why we see more of our catalog in the charts as every year passes.”

4. Sales flowing through Sony’s independent distribution businesses have ‘more than doubled’ over the last four years

Rob Stringer also provided an update on Sony Music’s label and artist services business, which includes prominent players like The Orchard and AWAL, which it fully acquired in 2015 and in 2021, respectively.

He noted that The Orchard represents over 26,000 labels, while AWAL works with over 20,000 artists, noting that “none of our competitors come close to that magnitude of scale”. 

Stringer also revealed: “In an environment where nearly half the marketplace is made up of the independent music sector, sales flowing through [Sony’s] independent distribution businesses more than doubled the last four years.”

Stringer also told investors: “We [via The Orchard] have minority interests in over half, at least, of the Orchard’s Top 20 clients, and it has recently formed a rapidly profitable admin initiative with our central Publishing Group.”

He added: “We recently concluded transactions with independents in Croatia, Ghana, India and South  Korea to name but a few countries alongside what we’ve already done in our established English-speaking regions.

Sony’s Alamo Records division also plays a key role in its wider independent distribution business.

Stringer noted that it serves “as the umbrella group of Foundation distribution and Santa Anna’s incubator system,” which, he revealed, collectively represents another nearly 3,000 artists. Sony acquired a majority stake in Todd Moscowitz’s Alamo Records in 2021, paying €102 million ($123m) to buy Universal Music’s interest in the company.

5. Stringer wants to see more price increases at DSPs.

Addressing Sony’s relationship with streaming companies and the economics of the streaming business, Stringer said that in the past year, across the company’s recorded music and publishing activities, it “finalized hundreds of agreements and renewals, including with nearly every top DSP as well as brand new start-ups”. 

According to Stringer, “paid subscription remains the fulcrum of our business,” noting that the number of paid subscribers globally grew by 11% to over 752 million in 2024.

“These are part of our everyday activities, which is why we don’t highlight them often but we  are constantly pushing to ensure audiences are getting an improved music experience,” he said.

Stringer cited Spotify CEO Daniel Ek‘s recent earnings call comment about “the relationship with [labels and DSPs being] better than ever.”

Stringer argued, however, that “there is room for additional upside for all of us if we work together even more closely”. 

“Music should not be ‘free’ or a ‘cheap bargain’ still after a decade of such positive-value-for-money proof of concept in mature territories.”

Rob Stringer

Stringer told investors during the presentation that “there is a need for prices to rise and new tiers [to be] introduced that truly reflect the successful maturity of streaming, especially compared with what we see in SVOD services”.

He added: “Music should not be ‘free’ or a ‘cheap bargain’ still after a decade of such positive-value-for-money proof of concept in mature territories. And there should be flexible pricing structures that are appropriate for high growth countries — particularly if they are sometimes hampered by inflation or differing national economic transactional methods.”

During the Q&A segment, Stringer commented on monetization of ad-supported offerings ad streaming services. He said: “There hasn’t been a huge improvement in ad-supported revenue in the last few years on these DSP platforms.

“We’d obviously like to see that happen. We would like to see the free tier be more closely looked at in terms of whether there actually was a free tier in some of the more mature markets, or whether there was a different structuring of how we would get revenue from the free tier, not just via advertising, but also by hopefully trying to convince the consumer in those tiers to upgrade to a subscription.”

6. Superfan tiers at DSPs are still an ‘early-stages concept’.

Elsewhere during the Q&A, Stringer was asked about superfan tiers at streaming services.

According to reports, Spotify‘s long-touted superfan tier could launch this year. This tier would see the platform charge up to $5.99 more per month on top of a Premium subscription (around $18 in total) for access to various ‘superfan‘ perks.

On Spotify’s Q1 earnings call, CEO Daniel Ek indicated that the platform was still working on such a tier but that the streamer needs “partners to come to the table and be part of this journey”.

“There’s been a lot of conversation in the market about the DSPs launching new premium service tiers, which target super fans,” said Justin Hill, Senior Vice President, Finance & Investor Relations, Sony Corporation of America, during the fireside chat with Stringer. “How big is that opportunity when it comes to monetizing that new tier and will it have a major impact on ARPU growth?”

In Stringer’s view, “the super fan tier is an early development concept”. He added: “The DSPs almost have to define with us what that actually means.

“We are partners with our artists and creators, but we also don’t control every revenue stream. So, it would be a multi-revenue stream-based concept.”

According Stringer, given Sony is home to “some of the biggest artists in the world,” has “some of the biggest brands in the world,” plus, “own[s] name and likeness on some of those brands,” the comapny “will be very comfortable with there being a [superfan] tier that works”.

He added, however: “We’re in the early conceptualization of those stages, and we have to work together as with anything else.

“Exactly as we discussed with pricing, or as we discussed with even some of the elements of how well those platforms work, we have to work together. And I think it’s an early-stages concept.”

7. Sony has engaged with over 800 companies on AI-related activities, but slammed ‘the lack of recognition of copyright by much of the tech sector’

Sony Music Group’s Chairman dedicated a section of the presentation to the company’s activities in the field of AI.

Stringer revealed that Sony Music Entertainment has “actively engaged” with over 800 companies on “ethical product creation, content protection and detection, enhancing metadata and audio tuning and translation amongst many other shared strategies”.

He added: “AI will be a powerful tool in creating exciting new music that will be innovative and futuristic. There is no doubt about this.”

He argued, however, that “these positive steps are weighed down by the lack of recognition of copyright by much of the tech sector and government policymakers in many countries and regions”. 

Stringer continued: “The training of these models to allow such movement cannot simply be laissez-faire and disrespectful to the fact that intellectual property has clear-cut rights. These should not be abused, and moving forward, a clear remuneration system should exist.” 

Stringer revealed that Sony is  “going to do deals for new music AI products this year with those that want to construct the future with us the right way”.

“We are going to do deals for new music AI products this year with those that want to  construct the future with us the right way.”

He added: “New subscription ideas with fair revenue sharing arrangements will be further additive. Like anything new, it will start slowly and rapidly scale  over time. 

“Consistent with how we managed the shift from ownership to streaming, we will share all revenues with our artists and songwriters whether from training or related to outputs, so  they are appropriately compensated from day one of this new frontier. 

“And with deals being carried out, it will be clear to governments that a functioning marketplace does exist so there is no need for them to listen to the lobbying from the tech  companies so heavily.”

Stringer said that Sony Music is “encouraged by the U.S. Copyright Office’s recent position stating that, ‘making commercial use of vast troves of copyrighted works, especially where this is accomplished through illegal access, goes beyond established fair use boundaries’”.

“But so far, there is too little collaboration, with the exception of a handful of more ethically minded players.”

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