Europe’s competition watchdog – the European Commission – revealed in April that it was preparing to investigate Universal Music Group‘s proposed acquisition of Downtown Music Holdings.

UMG was required to formally notify the EU about the deal, which would kickstart a Phase 1 investigation, at the end of which we’ll find out if the deal has been approved or raises serious competition concerns.

We won’t have long to wait.

An update filed by the regulator on Monday (June 16) confirms that UMG has notified the EC about the deal. The EC has set a provisional deadline of July 22 to make its decision in the Phase 1 investigation.

UMG’s Virgin Music Group revealed in December that it had agreed to buy Downtown Music Holdings LLC in a $775 million deal.

The UMG-Downtown deal did not meet the EU’s standard turnover thresholds that would typically require notification to Brussels, bit it did trigger notification requirements in both the Netherlands and Austria based on their respective national thresholds.

The EC decided to look into the deal because the Netherlands triggered a legal mechanism in EU competition law called Article 22. Austria subsequently joined the referral.

The competition authority has 25 working days to conduct its Phase 1 investigation, examining whether the alleged “concentration” raises serious competition concerns.

The formal Phase 1 notification period represents a crucial milestone in the regulatory process.

If the Commission identifies serious competition concerns during its initial review of the proposed deal, the case could progress to a more extensive Phase II investigation lasting up to 90 working days.

According to European Commission statistics, “more than 90% of all cases are resolved in Phase I, generally without remedies,” which implies that less than 10% of cases proceed to Phase II.

At the conclusion, the Commission can either clear the merger (with or without conditions), or prohibit it entirely if competition concerns cannot be adequately addressed.

Read MBW’s recent Article 22 explainer for a detailed breakdown of how the investigation process works.

The acquisition would significantly expand UMG’s artist and label services capabilities through Virgin Music Group, adding Downtown’s portfolio of companies including FUGA, CD Baby, and Curve Royalty Systems to Universal’s global operations.

“We are confident that we will close this acquisition in the second half of the year, on its original timeline.”

UMG statement issued in April

Independent label representatives have criticized UMG’s proposed deal to buy the company. In April, Brussels-based IMPALA, which represents over 6,000 independent music companies in Europe, welcomed the European Commission’s decision to investigate the proposed deal.

UMG remains confident about the deal’s prospects, stating in April: “We look forward to continuing to co-operate with the European Commission in the weeks ahead. We are confident that we will close this acquisition in the second half of the year, on its original timeline.”Music Business Worldwide

Donald Trump was getting restless.

He had just signed an order implementing last month’s trade deal with the UK, and Sir Keir Starmer, the British prime minister, was standing by his side in the bright sunshine of the Canadian Rockies. But the mind of the 79-year-old US president was squarely on the Middle East.

“As soon as I leave, we’re going to be doing something,” Trump said on Monday afternoon, when asked about the war between Israel and Iran. “But I need to leave here.”

A few hours later, Trump abruptly departed the G7 summit, shrinking it to a G6 in a theatrical exit that could mark a turning point in the conflict between Israel and Iran.

By Tuesday morning, Trump was back at the White House, leaving the world to divine whether he would launch new talks with Iran over its nuclear programme or join Israel in its strikes on the Islamic Republic.

The president had arrived in Kananaskis, Alberta, late on Sunday for what was expected to be two days of meetings with America’s closest allies — as well as other world leaders including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

Hosted by Mark Carney, Canada’s prime minister, the summit got off to an awkward start as Trump fumed about the exclusion of Russia from the grouping. He later made clear the US would not join European countries in imposing new sanctions on Moscow in order to press Vladimir Putin to negotiate seriously for a peace deal with Ukraine.

But the friction over the conflict in Europe was upstaged by more pressing discussions over the war in the Middle East.

Carney corralled the G7 into issuing a joint statement calling for “the resolution of the Iranian crisis” but later in the afternoon, Trump blasted out hawkish social media posts that pointed to further escalation with the Islamic republic.

In one, he warned Iranians they should “immediately” evacuate Tehran, the country’s capital, a city of nearly 10mn people.

Trump later said he left the G7 early simply to be “more well-versed” in the Iranian crisis and because his conversations would be more secure. “Being on the scene is much better, and we did everything I had to do at the G7,” he said.

There was nonetheless disquiet at his decision. Officials at the summit said the US president had been cordial during discussions, and had participated in a dinner with the G7 leaders after announcing his departure.

The only exception came when Trump publicly condemned Emmanuel Macron, president of France, for saying he was heading back to Washington for push for a “ceasefire” in the Middle East.

Trump said: “He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a ceasefire. Much bigger than that. Whether purposely or not, Emmanuel always gets it wrong.”

Three officials attending the G7 told the Financial Times that Macron’s decision to make a symbolic stopover in Greenland, on his way to the summit had irritated Trump and contributed to his decision to leave early.

During his visit to the semi-autonomous Danish island, which the US president has said he wants to bring under Washington’s control, Macron said of Trump’s threats: “I don’t think that’s what allies do.”

The White House did not respond to a request for comment on Trump’s tensions with Macron.

But one UK official said the president had simply tired of the G7, adding: “He wanted to get on with doing something productive — what was there further to achieve in Calgary?”

But the early departure has raised concerns Trump could do the same thing at the Nato summit in The Hague next week, where many are watching for signals his administration could reduce its commitment to the alliance.

“Just imagine the effect in Moscow should Trump walk out of the Nato summit,” said Stefano Stefanini, Italy’s former ambassador to Nato.

In the wake of the surprise announcement that Trump would be heading back to Washington to manage the conflict in the Middle East, top administration officials, including Pete Hegseth, the defence secretary, issued reassuring statements that America remained in a “defensive” posture in the region.

Marco Rubio, the secretary of state and national security adviser, who was part of the US G7 delegation, held calls with allies including Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top foreign policy official, Jean-Noël Barrot, the French foreign minister, and David Lammy, the UK foreign secretary.

Rubio is an Iran hawk and, alongside Hegseth, will advise Trump on his next move in the conflict.

Among the options facing Trump are a last-gasp attempt at diplomacy: the president said he was still considering whether to dispatch JD Vance, the vice-president, and Steve Witkoff, his Middle East envoy, to meet senior Iranian officials.

On the overnight flight back to Washington from Canada, Trump would not be drawn on what America’s next step would be, but said he was in “not much in the mood” for negotiations and was looking for Iran to back down permanently.

What he wanted from Tehran, he said on Air Force One, is “a complete give-up”. He also warned Iran not to attack American troops or facilities in the region.

“We’ll come down so hard, it’d be gloves off”, Trump said.

• Prime Day will return from July 8-11 in 2025. This is the first time the company has run the promotion for four days. This year marks the 10^th anniversary of Prime Day.

On July 15, 2015, Amazon launched an experiment. Would a flashy sale, in the retail desert of summer, turn people’s attentions away from outdoor activities and captivate them in a way akin to Black Friday? The company called that event Prime Day—and the results speak for themselves.