By Robert Gibbs on SwimSwam

It’s that time of the year again. SwimSwam will be previewing the top 12 men’s and women’s teams (and then some) from the 2025 NCAA Championships. Follow along with the College Swimming Preview Channel. Want to read even more? Check out the latest edition of the SwimSwam magazine. 

#9 NC State Wolfpack

Key Losses: Owen Lloyd (15 NCAA points), Luke Miller (7 NCAA points, 5 NCAA relays), Sam Hoover (4 NCAA relays)

Key Additions: #7 Gavin Keogh (CO- back), BOTR Maximus Buff (OH – fly/back), BOTR Ian Stutts (NC – IM), BOTR Tyler Bardak (IL – IM), Max Carlsen (NV – free), Bjørnar Laskerud (Norway – free)

GRADING CRITERIA

Over the years, we’ve gone back and forth on how to project points, ranging from largely subjective rankings to more data-based grading criteria based on ‘projected returning points.’ We like being as objective as possible, but we’re going to stick with the approach we’ve adopted post-COVID. The “stars” will rely heavily on what swimmers actually did last year, but we’ll also give credit to returning swimmers or freshmen who have posted times that would have scored last year.

Since we only profile the top 12 teams in this format, our grades are designed with that range in mind. In the grand scheme of college swimming and compared to all other college programs, top 12 NCAA programs would pretty much all grade well across the board. But in the interest of making these previews informative, our grading scale is tough – designed to show the tiers between the good stroke groups, the great ones, and the 2015 Texas fly group types.

• 5 star (★★★★★) – a rare, elite NCAA group projected to score 25+ points per event
• 4 star (★★★★) – a very, very good NCAA group projected to score 15-24 points per event
• 3 star (★★★) – a good NCAA group projected to score 5-14 points per event
• 2 star (★★) – a solid NCAA group projected to score 1-4 points per event
• 1 star (★) –  an NCAA group that is projected to score no points per event, though that doesn’t mean it’s without potential scorers – they’ll just need to leapfrog some swimmers ahead of them to do it

We’ll grade each event discipline: sprint free (which we define to include all the relay-distance freestyle events, so 50, 100 and 200), distance free, IM, breaststroke, backstroke, butterfly and diving. Use these grades as a jumping-off point for discussion, rather than a reason to be angry.

Also, keep in mind that we are publishing many of these previews before teams have posted finalized rosters. We’re making our assessments based on the best information we have available at the time of publication, but we reserve the right to make changes after publication based on any new information that may emerge regarding rosters. If that does happen, we’ll make certain to note the change.

2024-2025 Lookback

It was a bit of a down year for the Wolfpack, although still a strong year by most standards. Stalwarts Aiden Hayes and Arsenio Bustos were lost for the season due to injury, and that definitely hurt.

Those two alone probably wouldn’t have been enough for NC State to defend its ACC title against Cal in a new-look conference, but they probably would’ve kept the Wolfpack ahead of the Stanford Cardinal. There were certainly highlights. Relays continued to be a strength as the Wolfpack won the 200 free relay (breaking the ACC record) and the 400 medley relay. Individually, Quintin McCarty returned from a medical redshirt to win the 50 free, and Owen Loyd bounced back after a headlines-generating DQ in 2024 to win the 1650 title.

Ultimately, however, NC State couldn’t compete with the depth of Cal and Stanford. At the end of the meet, the Wolfpack stood in 3rd, their lowest finish at ACCs in over a decade, although they presumably would’ve rolled to another ACC title without the addition of the West Coast schools.

It was a similar story at NCAAs, where they slipped to 9th and 178 points after finishing 5th with 318 points in 2024. The top-end talent just wasn’t there, as Quintin McCarty (50 free) and Owen Lloyd (1650) were the only two swimmers to finish in the top eight individually. But the relays were still solid, with four relays finishing between 5th and 8th, and one finishing 9th.

Sprint Free: ★★ ½

NC State has displayed an interesting dichotomy in recent years: impressive sprint free depth, but inconsistent NCAA scoring.

Last season, that trend continued. Quintin McCarty and Drew Salls were the Wolfpack’s only NCAA scorers in sprint free, with McCarty placing 8th and Salls 16th in the 50 free. In prelims, McCarty and Salls hit lifetime bests of 18.62 and 18.90, respectively, while Jerry Fox finished 21st with a 19.05 after going 18.83 earlier in the season.

In the 100 free, McCarty, Fox, and Kai Winkler finished between 19th and 26th, with none hitting season-best times. McCarty (41.45) and Winkler (41.39) would’ve made the B-final had they matched their bests, while Fox (41.65) would’ve placed 17th.

Winkler also led the team with a 1:32.23 in the 200 free, followed by Daniel Diehl at 1:32.28. After the Swimflation boom of the last few years, those are no longer NCAA scoring times, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see either one of those guys pop off and drop the sub-1:32 it’s likely to take to score.

This isn’t quite the sprint free juggernaut that it used to be, but there’s plenty of depth, and Braden Holloway continues to turn under-the-radar swimmers into NCAA qualifiers. Hudson Williams didn’t hit best times last year, but owns marks of 19.32 and 42.01. Wells Walker (19.21/42.91) missed ACCs last year, but he could score there and/or develop into a sprint relay option.

Freshman Bjornar Laskerud arrives from Norway with international experience under his belt, including swims in the 50 free and 4×100 free relay at the recent World Championships. He’s been 22.23/50.11 in LCM, and his SCM times of 21.27/47.84 convert to roughly 19.1/43.0 in yards. 

A pair of Polish swimmers could also provide an immediate impact for the Wolfpack. Mikolaj Filipak is 1:49.10 in the long course 200 free, while Przemyslaw Pietron is 22.72/49.89 in the sprint freestyles, which suggests he should be sub-20 and sub-43 in yards sooner rather than later.

Distance Free: ★★

Last year’s 500 free depth chart was tightly packed, with the top four swimmers posting times within 0.30 seconds of each other. Owen Lloyd (4:14.13 in the 500 free, 5th in NCAA 1650) and Will Gallant (14th in 1650) have graduated.

Lance Norris returns after a 13th-place finish in the 1650 at NCAAs (14:38.31). Kyle Ponsler went 4:14.42 and 15:03.31 at ACCs but skipped those events at NCAAs to focus on the 400 IM and 200 back. Chase Mueller hit a 4:14.16 midseason, narrowly missing NCAA qualification.

A trio of new swimmers could help boost the distance squad this season. Freshman Max Carlsen‘s 1650 time of 14:59.44 would’ve been good enough for 10th at last season’s ACCs. He’s been 4:18.87 in the 500, and could develop into an impact swimmer very quickly.

Mikolaj Filipiak was the Polish national champion in the 400 free this spring, clocking a 3:54.00. He’s also been 8:12.82 in the long course 800 and 15:59.90, but his SCM times of 3:51.07/8:02.77/15:34.12 suggest he should at the very least be a scoring threat at ACCs.

Finally, the NC State website lists Texas transfer Landon D’Ariano under “IM/FL,” but it’s worth noting he was as fast as 4:24.46/15:20.35 in high school, and he swam a 9:02.51 at a dual meet last season.

Backstroke: ★★★½

While it’s not exactly the Coleman Stewart Era anymore, the Wolfpack returns two scoring swims in this discipline and have the times to add a few more.

Last year, Quintin McCarty and Daniel Diehl led the way at NCAAs, as McCarty took 13th in the 100 back (44.98) and Diehl finished 14th in 200 back (1:40.07).

Both men have been faster – McCarty’s went 44.56 en route to finishing 9th in prelims, while Diehl’s 200 back best is a 1:39.01 in the 200. Diehl has also been 46.57 in the 100, an event that falls on the same day as the 200 free in the NCAA schedule.

Hudson Williams‘ 100 back PR is 45.15, which would’ve just made the ‘B’ final last year, while Oleksandr Zheltyakov popped a very fast 1:38.78 in the 200 at ACCs, before adding over two seconds to finish 20th at NCAAs. Watch for Zheltyakov to make strides in the 100 this year, and he should score points in the 200 at NCAAs. Kyle Ponsler also swam the 200 back at NCAAs, going 1:41.15 for 31st.

Aiden Hayes‘ return should give the Wolfpak another NCAA scorer – his best time of 44.55 is just a hair faster than McCarty’s and again, is right on the cusp of making the ‘A’ final.

Additionally, freshman Gavin Keogh has already been 21.62/46.28/1:40.53 with steady drops over the last year. He should be an immediate scorer at ACCs, and that 200 back time isn’t far off from what it took to qualify for NCAAs last year. He had a great summer in long course, and while we take LCM-to-SCY with a pinch of salt, his LCM best time of 53.52 converts to roughly a 45.4 in yards.

Breaststroke: ★★

NC State loses its top breaststroker with the departure of Sam Hoover, but the Wolfpack has some promising talent in the form of Arsen Kozhakhmetov and Will Heck.

Kozhakhmetov went 52.13/1:55.80 at the 2025 ACC Championships, while Heck hit lifetime bests of 52.22/1:54.80 at a last chance meet in early March. Those times won’t qualify for, much less score at, NCAAs, but at least NC State has a couple of serviceable medley relay options, especially if either or both swimmers improve.

Additionally, Arsenio Bustos returns after taking a medical redshirt last year. His best event is the 200 breast, where his lifetime best of 1:50.49 is just off what it took to make the ‘A’ final at NCAAs. He’s also been 52.77 in the 100, but that time is three years old. Still, it feels like there’s at least some chance that Bustos emerges as the Wolfpack’s primary medley relay breastroker this season.

Butterfly: ★★★★

Long a strength for the Wolfpack, this discipline looks like it’d be lacking firepower this year if Aiden Hayes and Arsenio Bustos weren’t returning. It wasn’t long ago that NC State had five or more guys able to swim under 45 in the 100 fly. Last year, only Luke Miller did so, and he’s now exhausted his eligibility.

However, Hayes has a lifetime best of 44.35, and Bustos has been 44.49, so as long as they’re able to come close to matching those lifetime bests, NC State should be assured of a couple of scoring swims.

The fastest returner from last year’s squad is sophomore Kaii Winkler, who holds a lifetime best of 45.98 from high school, but focused more on the 200 free this past year.

NC State didn’t have anyone go under 1:44 in the 200 last season, but reinforcements have arrived in Raleigh. Again, Hayes, the 2023 NCAA champion in this event, provides an instant scorer. Additionally, Hungarian swimmer Anton Kochu arrives with a LCM time of 1:57.25, which converts to roughly to 1:43 in yards. If he can build on that, he could get in the mix for an NCAA invite He’s also been 53.43 in the LCM 100 fly.

Texas transfer Landon D’Ariano did go 1:44.76 last season, which could provide some additional depth at ACCs. Freshman Max Buff arrives with fly bests of 46.97/1:45.58.

IM: ★★★

The oft-mentioned Arsenio Bustos owns a best time of 1:39.83 from 2024, making him an instant threat to make the NCAA ‘A’ final.

NC State doesn’t have anyone who’s likely to score in both IM events, but Kyle Ponsler complements Bustos well with his 3:37.42 in the 400 IM. He swam that to win the NCAA ‘B’ final last year, and that time would’ve finished 4th in the A-final had he made it.

Daniel Diehl has been 1:41.39/3:44.64. While he’ll probably stick with the 200 free over the 400 IM at championship meets, that 200 time would’ve made the B-final at NCAAs.

The aforementioned D’Ariano’s best event is probably the 400 IM, where he’s been 3:42.20, right on the edge of making NCAAs. He’s “only” been 1:45.87 in the 200 IM, but that 3:42 makes it feel like he should have more in store for the 200 IM.

Freshmen  Ian Stutts (1:45.09/3:47.36) and Tyler Bardak ( 1:46.60/3:45.47) provide additional depth, and both would have scored in the 400 at ACCs last season.

Diving: N/A

The Wolfpack appears to have cut all male divers as teams restructure rosters in the wake of the House settlement.

Relays: ★★★★

Note that the grading system doesn’t align perfectly for relays as double points.

Relay grading system:

• 5 star (★★★★★) – 31+ points per relay event
• 4 star (★★★★) – 22-30 relay points per event
• 3 star (★★★) – 12-21 relay points per event
• 2 star (★★) – 5-11 relay points per event
• 1 star (★) – 0-4 relay points per event

The good news is that NC State only needs to replace two men from their NCAA relays. The bad news is that those two men, Luke Miller and Sam Hoover, accounted for nine of the 20 relay spots. There’s more good news in that Aiden Hayes and Arsenio Bustos should help blunt the losses.

It’s been a while since Hayes was on an NCAA sprint relay, but he’s been 19.0 individually and should be able to replace Luke Miller‘s 18.6 split on the 200 free relay.  Wells Walker (19.21), Hudson Williams (19.32), Kai Winkler (19.37 this summer), or one of the new international swimmers are all also possibilities.

The rest of the relays will need to replace both Miller and Hoover. The Wolfpack left their fastest 100 freestyler, Kai Winkler, off the 400 free relay last year, but it’s safe to assume that he should be on the relay this year, along with Quintin McCarty and Jerry Fox. Some combination of Hayes, Hudson Williams (42.01), Drew Salls (42.24), or one of the international freshmen should fill out the fourth spot.

Go ahead and pencil in Bustos to return to the 800 free relay, although the fourth leg isn’t quite as clear. Jerry Fox may be the frontrunner as he split 1:32.97 at ACCs. After him, there are a bunch of guys in the 1:34 and 1:35 range who could develop in the 1:31/1:32 types that this relay needs to remain competitive these days.

The medley relays could get interesting. Hayes led off the 200 medley relay at the 2024 NCAA Championships, clocking a 20.07 that remains the fastest time ever. But, with Miller gone, there’s not really an obvious replacement on the fly leg, so Hayes could end swimming fly, while McCarty remains on back for medley relays.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see either of Arsenio Bustos, Will Heck, or Arsen Kozhakhmetov end up on the breaststroke legs, and Kozhakhmetov may be the early frontrunner after nearly matching Hoover’s 200 MR split at midseason.

The bottom line is that, while there are holes to fill, the Wolfpack has the depth and the track record of developing relay stars, so they should be able to more or less match last year’s 122 relay points.

Total Stars: 21/40

2025/2026 Outlook

Over the last decade, NC State has consistently finished between 4th and 9th at NCAAs, and this season looks to be more of the same. They still seem to be lacking either a few guys who could step and make three A-finals, or else a roster deep enough to have 10-12 guys score.

But, having five relays all capable of finishing in the top ten, plus the return of Hayes and Bustos, means that the Wolfpack should certainly find themselves as one of the top ten teams in the NCAA quite comfortably this season.

The talent is there to push higher. A healthy Arsenio Bustos, more development from Daniel Diehl, Kai Winkler, and/or Hudson Williams, plus one or two freshmen popping off could help the Wolfpack make a run for the top five.

Men’s College Preview Index:

Read the full story on SwimSwam: 2026 College Swimming Previews: #9 NC State Men Get Boost From Returning Redshirts