Good morning. Several years ago, Amazon CTO Werner Vogels began sharing predictions on how technology would likely impact our lives the following year. In the past, he has foreseen the impact of digital technology in sports, AI assistants in developer productivity, machine learning embedded in production lines, and ‘fem tech’ in women’s health. As CTO since 2005, he occupies a unique perch to see—and even shape—what’s next. He also has a vested interest, of course, in embracing the technologies that his company creates. But these predictions are worth taking note of as these trends—if they materialize—will affect wide swaths of the economy.
So what’s he forecasting for 2026?
- Companionship is redefined for those who need it most: Companion robots will address the loneliness epidemic, especially for seniors and those with cognitive or other health issues.
- The dawn of the renaissance developer: Like the Renaissance greats who understood science, art and engineering, polymath developers will thrive.
- Quantum-safe becomes the only safe: With bad actors now harvesting data in anticipation of quantum’s arrival, the window for proactive defense is closing.
- Defense technology changes the world: Defense contractors are flush with capital and acting more like startups, compressing the timeline from battlefield to civilian applications of the technology.
- Personalized learning meets infinite curiosity: For most of human history, only the wealthy could afford a personal tutor or coach. That’s about to change.
I spoke with Vogels about the thinking behind this year’s predictions. Among other things, he admits that technology tools from AI to military drones can obviously harm or help, depending on the intention of the user. But he’s an optimist, especially about the potential for personalized learning and software developers.
And how does he see the mission of the CTO—a role that can cover everything from being the person who manages data centers to the founder focused on product? “I actually think CTOs are horrible managers. You should never put a CTO in charge of people,” he argues. “VPs of engineering wake up in the morning, thinking ‘Do I have the best team in the best situation? Can I shield them from politics and stuff like that? The CTO thinks about, ‘What’s the next technology that we should be building?’ Actually, that was my role for many years within Amazon. Then you become a technology provider, and then your role changes again. You have to understand how your customers are actually using your technology.”
As for what excites him most: “Especially in Africa, I’ve met so many motivated engineers that don’t want to come to the U.S. They don’t want to go work for a large company. They want to solve the problem in their country. I love that. That’s where the real progress lies.” Click here for our full interview.
Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com
Top news
Google challenges Nvidia’s chips
Shares of Nvidia dropped following a report that Meta is in talks to buy billions worth of AI chips from Google, suggesting the search engine company’s chips are ready to compete with Nvidia’s bestselling versions.
U.S. meets with Russia
U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll met with Russian officials in Abu Dhabi on Monday and Tuesday in another hopeful sign that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may soon end.
VWs, made in China
Volkswagen said Tuesday that it can for the first time make new electric vehicles entirely in China and do so for half the cost of making them in its native Germany. VW has invested billions in localized R&D in China and plans to introduce about 30 EVs there in the next five years.
Tim Cook’s possible successors
Since Apple CEO Tim Cook turned 65 recently , speculation has intensified about his possible successors. John Ternus, Craig Federighi, Eddy Cue and Greg ‘Joz’ Joswiak are all reportedly in the running and oversee different parts of the company.
The Big Short investor compares Nvidia with Cisco
The Big Short investor Michael Burry wrote in his first Substack post that Nvidia is the equivalent of Cisco during the dot com bubble: significantly overvalued and a harbinger for when the AI bubble will pop.
Novo Nordisk’s slump continues
U.S.-listed shares of Novo Nordisk fell more than 5% on Monday, largely due to the drug developer’s announcement that semaglutide, the core ingredient in its Ozempic and Wegovy drugs, did not slow cognitive deterioration in Alzheimer’s patients. The company has lost almost half of its value since the year started.
Is robot-driven unemployment already here?
Amazon cut 14,000 jobs in October, and multiple sources now predict another round of layoffs in early 2026 as the company doubles down on AI and robotics. Both blue-collar and white-collar employees are growing anxious about who might be next—and what the future looks like if there aren’t enough jobs left for humans.
The markets
S&P 500 futures were down 0.16% this morning. The last session closed up 1.55%. STOXX Europe 600 was flat in early trading. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was flat in early trading. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up o.07%. China’s CSI 300 was up 0.95%. The South Korea KOSPI was up 0.3%. India’s NIFTY 50 is down 0.29%. Bitcoin was up at $87K.
Around the watercooler
She ran her parents’ dry-cleaning business at 18. Today, the ‘godmother of AI’ is advising world leaders and running a billion-dollar startup by Eva Roytburg
Trump’s gambit to save Republicans from a giant health insurance spike comes with a $50 billion price tag, CRFB estimates by Nick Lichtenberg
Billionaire MacKenzie Scott extends her philanthropy with a $17 million gift to Oklahoma’s oldest public community college, where most students rely on aid by Jessica Coacci
As boomers are forced back to work because they can’t afford to retire, Robinhood CEO says Gen Zers are opening retirement accounts at just 19 years old by Emma Burleigh
CEO Daily is compiled and edited by Joey Abrams and Claire Zillman.
