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Warner Music Group CEO Robert Kyncl outlined his vision for the music industry’s future at the Bloomberg Screentime conference on Wednesday (October 8).
During the wide-ranging interview, he described how artificial intelligence could become a significant revenue stream for rightsholders while confirming major changes ahead for labels.
Speaking with Bloomberg’s Lucas Shaw, Kyncl – who joined Warner nearly three years ago from YouTube – described an industry entering a new growth phase after years of relying solely on subscriber expansion.
WMG’s CEO also provided details about the company’s future strategic direction, from potential video streaming partnerships to expansion into artist services traditionally outside the major label remit.
Here are five key takeaways from Kyncl’s appearance at Bloomberg Screentime…
1. Warner sees itself as “Marvel for music” – and streaming video partnerships are coming
While Kyncl couldn’t confirm reports of a Netflix slate deal, he indicated announcements in the streaming video space are forthcoming, positioning Warner’s catalog as an untapped resource of content.
“Our company has a tremendous catalog. Prince, Madonna, Fleetwood Mac. It just goes on and on and on,” he said. “The stories that we have are incredible. And they haven’t really been poked. We’re like Marvel for music. That’s where we are. And it will be unlocked.”
Added Kyncl: “It makes a lot of sense for us to partner with a company that can bring it to life all around the world, and it’s exciting, both for acts who are no longer with us, but we make their estates happy and satisfied… But also for acts who are with us, who then can actually help bring young audiences to the streaming platforms.”
2. Warner believes AI will make “recognizable music” more valuable
Kyncl drew parallels between the current AI moment and the rise of user-generated content 15-17 years ago, which initially sparked “major friction” and lawsuits between platforms like YouTube and copyright holders before becoming “a multi-billion dollar industry.”
“I think of AI as that on steroids, and we just have to figure it out correctly, so that we all participate the right way,” he said.
To demonstrate Warner’s conviction, Kyncl highlighted the company’s partnership with Bain Capital to create a $1.2 billion joint venture to acquire music copyrights – though he declined to announce any deals yet, telling the audience to “stay tuned.”
“We maintain that if you want to train on our content, you have to license it.”
Robert Kyncl
The rise of AI means that there will be “a lot more music, and there’ll be a lot more unrecognizable music, which will increase the noise, and frustration, and all of that,” Kyncl explained. “But we believe that AI music from big stars, recognizable music, sort of branded IP and music from stars, will actually be more valuable.”
Warner’s AI strategy follows what Kyncl called “3 L’s”: License, legislate, and litigate – “in that order preferably.”
“On the input side, it’s for training. We maintain that if you want to train on our content, you have to license it. Which is the source of our lawsuits, obviously,” he said, referencing the ongoing litigation against AI companies Suno and Udio.
3. Music streaming is entering a new pricing era after 15 years of stagnation
Kyncl identified pricing as one of the most significant changes happening in the music industry, marking a shift from growth driven purely by subscriber numbers.
“The really big change for music is that after many years of growth only through subscriber growth, now we’re also going through pricing increases. So it’s not only just volume in terms of subscribers, but also price, which has not been the case in the previous 15 years,” he said.
“I said this first day on the job, you now see it happening all around, and you’ll see more of that.”
With Goldman Sachs predicting over a billion paying subscribers by 2030, up from around 750 million at the end of 2024 (see below), combined with rising average revenue per user (ARPU), Kyncl described music as “a healthy industry.”
While declining to specify what Spotify should charge consumers, Kyncl emphasized Warner’s new approach to wholesale pricing negotiations:
“The big change that I have adopted is that instead of thinking about everything retroactively, which is – we hope that they will increase price[s] and therefore something good will happen for us … I think about it more prospectively, which is, look, this is what our product costs into the future. And you decide how you price your product on a retail basis.”
In August, Spotify Co-President and Chief Business Officer Alex Norströmtold the Financial Times that price adjustments have become “part of [the platform’s] toolbox now” after maintaining flat rates in recent years.
The company announced subscription price hikes in numerous markets outside the US that same month. The US last saw a price rise from Spotify in June 2024.
4. Warner has gained market share while both Atlantic and Warner Records are “white-hot on fire”
Despite undergoing what Kyncl described as “incredibly invasive and difficult changes,” he noted that Warner has increased its market share by one percentage point over the last 12 months while achieving success on the charts.
“Warner Records and Atlantic are both absolutely white-hot on fire. It hasn’t been like this in 25 years. It was either one or the other. We actually have both engines firing on all cylinders,” he said, citing success with artists like Alex Warren, Sombr, and RavynLenae.
“If you’re in an industry that’s changing, if you’re in a world with lots of crosswinds, you have to do daring things,” Kyncl responded. “One of the things that I want to end in the company is that it’s not afraid to be first, it’s not afraid to be daring, it’s not afraid to break the mold. Elliot’s appointment is one of those things.”
After acquiring 51% of Grainge’s company10K Projects and observing his performance for a year, Kyncl praised the younger Grainge’s achievements: “Since then, he’s done lots of big changes at Atlantic. And as he was doing, just like with Warner overall, he’s grown market share, broken acts, done incredible campaigns for lots of artists.”
Credit: Piotr Swat / Shutterstock.com
5. Major labels will become “full service companies” within five years
Looking ahead, Kyncl predicted significant expansion of major labels’ service offerings, particularly in the US and UK markets where labels traditionally haven’t offered management or live promotion services.
“I think we will, and I don’t mean just us, but in general, there will be full-service companies,” he predicted. “Today, we don’t offer management. We don’t offer live promotion. There’s a lot of services like that that we’re not in the business of, here in the United States.”
“In a world where anyone can publish, so fully democratized distribution, no one can be heard, because the noise level is so high.”
He noted this model is already common in East Asia and parts of Europe, including within Warner’s own operations in those regions: “We are the hub for the artists of their universe and we service them in every regard… The US, the UK are kind of the exceptions to that. And I think that’s going to change.”
Kyncl argued that in an increasingly complex industry, artists need larger, more integrated companies supporting them: “In a world where anyone can publish – so fully democratized distribution, no one can be heard, because the noise level is so high and it’s so hard to break through the clutter.
“And suddenly you need an army and an infrastructure to actually do that [globally] if you want to do it on a sustained basis.”
“I am a very big believer in [a] large-scale company, especially in the music business. [I’m] may be counter to what everyone else believes, but I’m more convinced of that than I was three years ago.”
